需求旺季即将来临！ 螺纹钢期货继续大幅波动且钢价居高不下能持续多长时间？ _东方财富网

原标题：淡季需求临近！ 螺纹钢期货剧烈波动，钢价能持续多久？

概要

[Demandseasonisapproaching!Howlongcanrebarfuturescontinuetofluctuatesharplyandhighsteelprices?】WiththeapproachoftheSpringFestivalrebardemandhasalsoenteredtheseasonaloff-seasonAtthesametimesomesteelmillsinHebeihaverecentlyplannedtoreduceproductionduetotheimpactoftheepidemiconthetransportationofcokeandotherrawmaterialsandbothsupplyanddemandhaveshownamarginalweakeningtrendWiththecontinuousaccumulationofinventoriessinceNewYear’sDaythepriceofrebarfutureshasoutperformedthespotmarketbuttheoverallperformancehasalsobeenweak(ChinaTimes)

With the Spring Festival approaching, rebar demand has also entered the seasonal off-season. At the same time, some steel mills in Hebei have recently planned to cut production due to the impact of the epidemic on the transportation of coke and other raw materials, and both supply and demand have shown a marginal weakening trend.With the continuous accumulation of inventories, since New Year’s Day, rebar futurespriceThe performance is stronger than the spot but the overall performance is also weak.

On January 22, rebarMain forceThe 2105 contract closed at 4294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72%. At the same time, as more projects enter the final stage, terminal demand further shrinks. According to industry insiders, it is expected that rebar futures will fluctuate more drastically in the near future. However, due to cost support, demand expectations after the Spring Festival and the characteristics of this winter storage will support the 2105 contract price to run at a higher level, and is expected to usher in the return of demand after the Spring Festival breakthrough.

　　Low demand season is approaching

It is understood that in the first ten days of January 2021, the China Iron and Steel Association’s key statistics on steel companies’ crude steel average daily average of 2,195,600 tons increased 1.51% from the previous monthYoYAn increase of 11.58%. Judging from the recent changes in social inventories, combined with the situation in the same period last year, steel inventory has entered a cycle of accumulation, but the rate of accumulation has slowed year-on-year. The current social stock of steel is 825,000 tons lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that steel stocks will continue to increase in the future.

As the end of the year approaches, steelmarketEntering the off-season of seasonal demand, on January 20, the domestic steel market steadily declined, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan Pu’s billet remained stable at 3810 yuan/ton.The year is approaching, downstream construction sites have gradually entered a phase of suspension, and the current price is high, the steel spot market transactions are still sluggish, and some traders are demandingShipment, Prices continue to loosen.

Beijing XXfactoryMr. Sun, the sales manager, told the reporter of China Times that the most difficult day in late December last year was the sharp rise in steel prices.enterpriseProduction costs increase, but they cannot be transferred to the terminal-I want to raise prices but are afraid of the terminalclientOpposed. Although the price of steel has fallen slightly recently, the purchase is now in a semi-stagnation state, and I dare not purchase a large amount of goods.

According to industry insiders, the current spot price of rebar is significantly higher than the same period last year. Taking Shanghai as an example, the spot price of rebar of the same specification is 580 yuan/ton higher than the same period of last year (lunar calendar). Although traders are optimistic about the demand after the Spring Festival, High prices still suppressed traders’ enthusiasm for winter storage, and steel millsprofitIt is also difficult to cut prices and make profits even under meager circumstances. Therefore, it is very likely that steel mills will increase their self-storage efforts this winter and resources will be concentrated in steel mills after the Spring Festival.

Judging from the currently announced winter storage plans for steel mills, this year many steel mills have reduced the interest rate they give to traders, indicating that the current steel mills’ capital situation is relatively good. On the whole, after the Spring Festival, more spot resources may be in the hands of steel mills, and because steel mills have less financial pressure on their own, the shipping price after the Spring Festival is not expected to be low, which will not have a big negative impact on the spot market. As expected, the release can also raise prices for shipments.

In this regard, Centaline FuturesAnalystBloomberg told a reporter from China Times that since January, steel prices have been in a high and fluctuating pattern, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not very prominent, and the trend of the disk is not smooth. On the one hand, it is currently in the off-season winter storage node, and the recent epidemic has multiple outbreaks, and downstream demand Weakened, the total stock of steel continues to accumulate, and the shift from factory warehouses to social warehouses is accelerating. The pressure on steel prices is greater. Recently, the threaded disk surface touched around 4400 yuan/ton and it has declined, reflecting the strong willingness of the market to hedging. Single profitLighten up, Disk prices plunged sharply.

However, on the other hand, the price of raw materials for coking ore has continued to rise this year. At present, the spot price of coke has risen in 14 rounds, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan/ton, which directly led to a sharp rise in the production cost of steel plants. At present, the long-process profit in East China has shrunk significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Corresponding to this, the coking plant is profitable. The current profit of the Shanxi independent coking plant is close to 950 yuan/ton. This week, the winter storage policies of steel mills in various places have been introduced one after another, and the price of thread is maintained at about 4,250 yuan/ton, which is 400-500 yuan/ton higher than last year.

　　Is steel price expected to continue to rise after the beginning of spring?

Affected by multiple factors such as the low operating rate of downstream downstream in winter and the approaching Spring Festival, steel demand has repeatedly declined. At present, many downstream construction sites in the north have stopped construction.workerHas also returned home in advance.In addition, steelShipmentsIt also keeps falling. It is expected that domestic steel prices will still fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the priceless situation will continue until the Spring Festival holiday.

Bloomberg told a reporter from China Times that as of the week of January 21, the total threaded inventory increased by 680,000 tons to 7,692,200 tons, an increase of nearly 10% from the previous month. The accumulation rate has accelerated significantly in the past two weeks, but the inventory is the same as last year It is only 5% higher than that, and inventories are basically the same as previous years when steel production continues to be high, which also reflects the strong momentum of downstream steel demand. In terms of sub-items, the thread factory warehouse increased by 130,000 tons to 2,887,300 tons, an increase of 4.6%, and the community warehouse increased by 550,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, an increase of 13%. The factory warehouse is gradually shifting to the community library, which is superimposed this week. The factory has successively introduced winter storage policies, and traders have successively participated in winter storage, and social inventories have increased significantly.

In addition, in the third trading week of January, the domestic steel market continued its downward adjustment trend. As of the week of January 21, the steel material price index fell by 0.72% on a week-on-week basis, and the decline expanded; the flat steel index fell 1.08, a decline Slightly narrowed. The social inventory of the five major domestic products monitored by the House of Steel this week increased by 584,400 tons or 6.24% from the previous week, which was a month-on-month increase of 379,200 tons or 4.22%. The accumulation of five major steel types’ social inventories + steel mill inventories continued to accelerate, with a net increase of 828,200 tons this week, compared with a net increase of 678,900 tons in the previous week. The accumulation of steel stocks increased significantly.

At the same time, Du Hongfeng, a senior analyst at Steel House, also told a reporter from China Times that construction steel is more sensitive to seasonality. At present, domestic demand in Northeast, Northwest, and North China has basically stagnated and demand has weakened.butsupplyThe end is still at a high level. In early January, the average daily crude steel of key steel enterprises of China Steel Association increased by 1.51% from the previous month to 2,195,600 tons.The total domestic steel inventory monitored by the Steel House has rebounded for four consecutive weeks, the margin of supply and demand is slack, and the market has returned to rationality

Du Hongfeng said that the possibility of narrow fluctuations in construction steel before the Spring Festival is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, the price of construction steel is likely to rise mainly due to shocks. After the Spring Festival, the downstream construction site demand is expected to start quickly. After the temperature rises, most areas are suitable for construction except for parts of the northeast and northwest. Second, the current epidemic prevention situation is severe, and many local migrant workers have issued suggestions for non-essential, non-returning, and local Chinese New Year.

On January 20, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held a press conference on the epidemic prevention and control situation before and after the Spring Festival, requiring returnees to have a nucleic acid negative test certificate within 7 days before they can return. Migrant workers spend the New Year locally, which is objectively beneficial to the rapid start of downstream construction sites.The Central Economic Conference held in December last yearjobsmeetingRequirement to continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudentcurrencyPolicies, to maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, policy operations must be more precise and effective, not to make a sharp turn, to ensure that the “14th Five-Year Plan” starts well, and to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party with excellent results.

Given that the current economic recovery is not stable and the overseas epidemic is not effectively controlled, it is expected that my countrymacropolicyWill continue toReal economySupport. Strong raw material cost support: my country’s blast furnace operating rate continues to operate at a high level, steel mills will have a round of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and overseas crude steel production continues to rise and divert, iron ore will maintain a tight supply situation.

The short-term supply shortage of coke is difficult to alleviate. At present, coking companies have raised the fourteenth round of price increases of 100 yuan/ton, and some steel plants in North and East China have accepted it. This round of price increases is expected to take place in the near future. The grade coke will reach 2750 yuan/ton. Based on the judgment of tight supply and demand, high cost will have strong support for the market.

As the Spring Festival approaches, steel demand is becoming weaker. According to MysteelResearchFor 237 distributors, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the first week of January was 178,000 tons, which fell to 140,000 tons in the second week, and only more than 110,000 tons in recent days.The pressure of supply and demand in the steel market has further increased this week, and inventories continue to accumulate. Considering that domestic steel mills generally have low profits orLoss, The decline in steel prices may not be large, showing a volatile and weak operation.

Bloomberg told a reporter from China Times that looking ahead, the traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four” after the beginning of the spring is expected to drive steel demand recovery, and this year the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will resolutely reduce crude steel output to ensure a year-on-year decline in crude steel output. The wording this time is not to compress crude steel “capacity” but “production”, which shows the firm attitude of the policy level. Therefore, under factors such as demand recovery + supply reduction expectations + rising steel mill costs, steel prices are expected to continue to rise after the beginning of the spring. Therefore, it is recommended to do more in the vicinity of steel mill costs.

(Source: China Times)

(Editor in charge: DF372)