华宝基金周静：南方资本可以加速香港股市牛市吗？ _东方财富网

概要

[HuabaoFundZhouJing:HowfarcanthesouthwardcapitalacceleratetheHongKongstockbullmarket?】OverallthevaluationofHongKongstocksisrelativelycheapandthentheprofitabilityisbettersointhiscasewethinkthecurrentinvestmentvalueofHongKongstocksisgood

On January 20, HuabaofundGeneral managerAssistant Zhou Jing as a guestOriental wealthNet, withinvestmentShare his opinionmarketWonderful insights and promising investment directions this year.

　　Guest introduction: Zhou Jing, PhD, Columbia University, USABusiness managementMaster’s degree, with CFA, FRM, CMA and CFM certificates at the same time, once worked in Deya Capital, PanThe Pacific OceanSecurities America and HSBC Securities America, engaged in quantitative analysis,PositioningInvestment analysis andStock investmentthe studyjobs, The current Huabao FundAssistant to General Manager, General Manager of International Business Department and Huabao Asset Management Hong Kong Co., Ltd.the companydirector.

　　Review of the essence of the text version:

　　Question: How do you view the presentHong Kong stocksOf the investment value?

　　Zhou Jing:In the past two years between 2019 and 2020, the growth rate of Hong Kong stocks has actually lagged substantially behind other mainstream stock markets. The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks has a relatively large advantage over A shares. The premium of AH shares is now about There is still a 49% premium, and the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks this year have a relatively goodimprove.Mainland companies listed on Hong Kong stocks, especially inHang Seng IndexFor the mainland companies listed inside, we predict that this year’s profit can achieve a profitability of 15%-20%. So overall,The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is relatively cheap, and then the profitability is better, so in this case, we think the current investment value of Hong Kong stocks is good.

　　Question: Southbound funds have accelerated inflow into Hong Kong stocks recently. How to interpret the phenomenon of the sudden acceleration of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks at this time?

　　Zhou Jing:In fact, we can see that since the second half of last year, the speed of buying Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds has gradually accelerated. This acceleration is firstly related to the better investment value of Hong Kong stocks we mentioned earlier, which is related to this. At the same time this year, the issuance of new funds is still accelerating. We understand that a large part of the newly issued funds are investing in Hong Kong stocks. This may partly explain why the flow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated this year.

　　Question: What specific operations does your company have in response to the recent investment boom in the Hong Kong stock market?whetherAdd warehouseAfter the Hong Kong stock market, can you talk to us specifically?

　　Zhou Jing:In fact, our company has always deployed multiple funds that invest in Hong Kong stocks, including four passive funds and three active funds.Overall, in fact, there have been some funds investing in Hong Kong stocks recentlyNet inflow, So after we have inflows, we will naturally add some Hong Kong stocks that we think have long-term investment value.

　　Question: Regarding the direction of allocation, some investors will choose to interconnectNetDragonThe new economic direction represented by the head, but some investors believe that the relatively low-valued, traditional, and procyclical direction has greater opportunities. Who are you more optimistic about?

　　Zhou Jing:If flowInvest inGold is still able to maintain a relatively fast pace this year, especially since this week, it has been able to flow in about 20 billion of funds every day.If this is the amount of funds, I think there are opportunities for the low-value sector and the new economy sector, because after all, there is more water.But if the rate of inflow slows down in the later stage, I think we still have to choose high-quality companies in excellent tracks.From a medium to long-term perspective, I think the direction of China’s economic transformation must be from a traditional procyclical old economy toconsumptionThe new economic transformation represented by, technology, and medical care. In this case, I think some high-quality companies representing the direction of China’s economic transformation should be able to bring better returns to investors in the medium and long term.

　　Question: With the continuous influx of southward capital, is the Hong Kong stock market bull market already here? Is it possible that Hong Kong stocks will recur in the future?2016Year to2017What about the big bull market in 2015?

　　Zhou Jing:If we are from last year’s epidemic to March last year, the lowest point of Hong Kong stocks is actually 21,000 points. In this case, the current Hong Kong stocks’ current recovery point is 29,962 points. In fact, relative to the lowest point, Hong Kong stocks have recently recovered. It has risen by 40% in one round. It can be said that the Hong Kong stock market has been in a bull market since March last year, but it has not formed a continuous rise, and it will oscillate more.butHow far the bull market can go in the future, and how big the increase can be, I think depends on the economic fundamentals first, that is to say, how long China’s economic recovery can last, and secondly depends on the profitability of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. Then there is the loose situation that depends on liquidity.In 2017, in addition to domestic funds going south to buy Hong Kong stocks, the trend of overseas funds returning to Hong Kong stocks is actually very obvious. This is the most important basis for the 12 consecutive months of rising bull market in 2017.

Under the current circumstances, we feel that Nanshui has arrived, but we have not yet seen a trend of obvious return of overseas funds. If the dollar index can remain relatively weak,MidlandIf the easing of the reserve has been maintained, we believe that at the end of the first quarter of this year or the second quarter of this year, some foreign capital will choose to return to Hong Kong stocks because they will be more and more confident in China’s economic recovery.If the southbound funds are combined with overseas funds to return, we believe that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks will continue for a longer period of time, and at the same time, the increase will be larger, but this remains to be seen.

　　Question: How do you think we should lay out future investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market?

　　Zhou Jing:The difference between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares is that Hong Kong stocks are an institutional-oriented stock market. The situation dominated by foreign-invested institutions in Hong Kong stocks has not been fundamentally changed so far. Foreign-funded institutions generally focus on value investment, and the tracking time for a company will be relatively long. Take a little longer, in this case,Companies with a lot of Hong Kong stocks may take longer to fully realize their value, so compared to investmentAIn terms of stocks, investing in Hong Kong stocks may require a little more patience.

　　Question: If the majority of citizens want to invest in Hong Kong stocks, do you think it is an active fund orIndex fundWhat?

　　Zhou Jing:I thinkCash flowThe speed of entering Hong Kong stocks is very fast, and then under a general rising market, active fundsPositionDue to industry preferences, it is actually difficult to beat index funds.From a mid- to long-term perspective, actively managed funds can select the leading companies that can ultimately win in the subdivision track in the mid-to-long term, which usually brings obvious alpha benefits to investors.But if it isshort termJust look at it for a month or two, this is actually quite difficult to say, especially if funds are flooding quickly. In this case, short-term index funds will actually rise very well.

(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)

(Editor in charge: DF064)