每天有42亿黄金！ 香港股票ETF完全炙手可热，但几乎跌至极限！ 发生了什么？ _东方财富网

原标题：一天之内有42亿黄金！ 香港股票ETF完全炙手可热，但几乎跌至极限！ 发生了什么？

概要

[42billioningoldinoneday!TheHongKongstockETFwascompletelyhotbutitalmostfelltothelimit!whathappened?】TheHongKongstockmarketisboomingandfundsareheavilybuyingHongKongstocktradingopen-endindexfunds(ETFs)UnderthepursuitofvariousmarketfundsthenetinflowofHongKongstockETFsreached42billionyuanadayandsomeproductsshowedhighpremiumsHowevertheconcentratedtradingofarbitragefundsandthefallofhighpremiumscausedsomeHongKongstockETFstobuckthemarketandplummetedSomeproductsalsoexperiencedadramaticsceneofoneday’sdailylimitandonedayclosetothedailylimit(ChinaFundNews)

The Hong Kong stock market is booming, and funds are rushing to buy Hong Kong stock trading open-ended indexesfund(ETF).Under the pursuit of various market funds, Hong Kong stock ETFsNet inflowThe funds are as high as 4.2 billion yuan, part ofproductThere is a high premium. however,arbitrageThe concentrated trading of funds and the fall of high premiums caused some Hong Kong stock ETFs to buck the market and plummeted. Some products also experienced a dramatic scene of one day’s daily limit and one day close to the daily limit.

　　High premium fall

　　Hong Kong stock ETF plummeted

On January 20, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.08% and invested in cross-border ETFs in the Hong Kong stock marketSecondary market priceBut it fell back in a large area:Southbound tradingA number of ETFs such as 50ETF and Shanghai Stock Connect ETF fell more than 5% in a single day, and the 100 ETF on Hong Kong stocks fell as much as 9.88%, which was close to reaching the limit.

Industry insiders analyzed that the phased selling of arbitrage funds and the cooling of the product’s high premium rate were the main reasons for the sharp drop in Hong Kong stock ETFs that day.

“Yesterday the Hong Kong stock ETF fell sharply, mainly because of the high premium of such products and the sale of arbitrage funds.” A stock ETF fund manager said that the short-term increase in the Hong Kong stock market has attracted large amounts of funds to buy. The market demand for ETF products has soared.Some investors have higherpriceBuying; on the other hand, the high premium of ETFs also triggers part of the funds to buy a basket of stocks and then sell them to Hong Kong stock ETFs for arbitrage. However, some products were unable to realize T+0 arbitrage trading, which resulted in the arbitrage funds on January 19th that could not be sold until the 20th, and related products experienced a large decline.

According to the data, as of the close of January 19, the total management scale of 13 Hong Kong stock ETFs was 9.295 billion yuan, an increase of 3.964 billion yuan over the previous trading day, a single-day increase of 74.37%; calculated based on the average transaction price of the day, the above products Net flow per dayInvest inGold reached 4.15 billion yuan.

A large amount of capital net purchases also made the product premium rate rise substantially. Among them, the Southbound Stock Connect 50ETF, which was just listed on January 13, had a daily limit on January 19, attracting a net inflow of 3.466 billion yuan, and the closing premium rate reached 8.36%; the Hong Kong stock 100ETF attracted 329 million yuan a day in January. On the 19th, the daily limit was also harvested, and the closing premium rate reached 12.84%.

However, after the sharp drop on January 20, the premium rate of the above funds has fallen sharply.

Data shows that as of the close of January 20, the average premium rate of 13 Hong Kong stock ETFs was 0.93%, which was 2.17 percentage points lower than the previous trading day; the latest premium rates of Hong Kong stock 100 ETF and Southbound 50 ETF were 1.69% and 1.09%, respectively. Compared with the previous trading day, they dropped by 11% and 7% respectively. The two products fell as high as 9.88% and 6.71% on the same day.Lossheavy.

One from South ChinaPublic offeringInvestment researchers said that in response to the high premium that may occur in Hong Kong stock ETF products, institutional funds will have a real-time arbitrage mechanism to respond. For example, when there is a premium on the stock ETF market, generally 2 million shares can be used to purchase a basket of stocks and sell from the secondary market for arbitrage; if there is a discount on the market, there will be funds to buy from the secondary market, and then Arbitrage trading can also be achieved by redeeming a basket of stocks from the primary market.

　　Investors need to understand the arbitrage mechanism

　　Avoid buying high-premium products

However, because some Hong Kong stock ETF arbitrage transactions are relatively lagging, the state of high-premium transactions cannot be quickly eliminated. Many industry professionals suggested that ordinary investors should fully understand the arbitrage trading mechanism to avoid losses when buying high-premium products.

The above-mentioned stock ETF fund manager said that at present, most Hong Kong stock ETF subscriptions in the market cannot be sold on the secondary market on the same day. If the arbitrage mechanism is not smooth, the premium rate cannot be eliminated on the day, and it can be sold in the secondary market the next day, which will cause a big drop the next day.

According to the fund manager, the current A-share ETF can generally achieve T+0 arbitrage and will not generate such a large premium rate. The cash purchase of cross-border ETFs requires the RTGS system (real-time full settlement of transactions one by one). Shenzhen-listed funds can achieve real-time settlement of shares and provide timely arbitrage for sale or redemption. It cannot be done. For Hong Kong stock ETF products listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, T+1 is generally required to complete arbitrage operations.

In the view of this fund manager, the arbitrage trading mechanism has a positive effect on eliminating high premiums and high discounts.For arbitrage trading, if the product is sold on the day of the purchase on the same day, the premium rate of the product will be small; if the product can be sold on the second day of the purchase on the same day, the restriction of the arbitrage mechanism will lead to an increase in the short-term premium rate, which will affect the secondary market.Price fluctuationsThe impact will be great.

A referendum investment researcher in South China also told reporters, “From the perspective of arbitrage trading, if the net value and price trend of stock ETFs show a large deviation, such as a discount and premium rate of more than 1%, there will be funds for risk-free arbitrage. Obtaining income from spreads is conducive to eliminating this large deviation and allowing the price of the fund’s secondary market to match the trend of net worth relatively.”

According to the investment researcher, the current stock ETF arbitrage strategy is relatively mature, and many large funds are equipped with related software and systems, which can realize non-marking trading. As long as such arbitrage opportunities appear in the market, the system can realize real-time arbitrage.

Many investors also reminded that investors need to be particularly cautious when participating in products with higher premium rates to avoid investment losses.

The above-mentioned South China public offering investment researcher said,Fund equityIt is the “true value” of the underlying index of the stock ETF product tracking. The secondary market transaction premium is the “transaction price” under abnormal market conditions. Buying such products from the secondary market at a high premium means that the price is higher than the net value. Holding funds, in the medium and long term, whether it is market changes or arbitrage transactions, secondary market prices will gradually match the trend of net worth. Investors may suffer losses as the premium gradually converges.

The investment researcher said that the ETFs invested in US stocks and crude oil last year had a high premium. As market conditions change and product supply and demand conditions ease, secondary market prices will return to net worth. Investors who “buy at a high price” will encounter the risk of a high premium falling apart from net worth fluctuations, causing investment losses.

The above-mentioned stock ETF fund manager said, “Investors need to have a full understanding and understanding of this type of product and do not invest in ETFs as stocks. Hong Kong stock ETFs track Hong Kong stock indexes and hold a basket of stocks. If there is a continuous daily limit, do not buy at high premiums. Under the effective arbitrage mechanism in the market, the larger discount and premium rates may disappear quickly, and investors who buy at high premiums will suffer losses.”

Related reports:

Hong Kong stocks do more enthusiasm ignited

Net capital inflow to Hong Kong stocks concept fund

Since 2021, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced a surge of nearly 15%, igniting the market’s enthusiasm for long Hong Kong stocks.

The reporter learned from a number of public offerings that various Hong Kong stock products such as Hong Kong stock ETFs, Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds, etc. have recently appeared obviousNet purchase. Investors in the industry believe that the Hong Kong stock market has an outstanding price-performance ratio and is expected to usher in both market liquidity and valuation.

　　Hong Kong stock concept funds are sought after

　　The net purchase of funds is obvious

An equity fund manager in Beijing revealed to reporters that his public offering of Hong Kong stock ETFs and Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds have shown a net purchase trend. Among them, the net purchase of Hong Kong stock ETF products this week was about 2 billion yuan, and the daily capital inflow of southbound trading funds also appeared, and the amount of natural subscription funds increased significantly.

A person from the public offering market department in Shanghai also said that with the rapid recovery of the Hong Kong stock market,the companyThe net value of Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen funds has risen rapidly, and there has also been a significant net subscription phenomenon. At present, the company regards such products as the focus of continuous marketing, and investors who are optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market can apply for the company’s products.

From the perspective of southward funds, as of January 20, the total net inflow of southward funds into Hong Kong stocks this year is 205.581 billion yuan, which is the same period.Northward capitalNearly 5 times.

Cai Carr, manager of the Wells Fargo Hong Kong Stocks Flux Selection Fund, analyzed that leading companies in Hong Kong stocks are not as crowded as A-shares, and their pricing is relatively reasonable, attracting A-share funds to be allocated southward; and there are some scarce targets in the Hong Kong market, somethe InternetGiants and entertainment companies have received financial attention.

“The substantial net inflow of capital from the south and the high AH premium support the fact that Hong Kong stocks are better than A-shares in terms of price/performance ratio. Investment in the Hong Kong stocks in the south may be the time.”Bosera FundChief Macro StrategyAnalystWei Fengchun said.

　　Debon FundSaid that China’s economy is the first to recover, and domestic high-quality assets have a higher allocation value. The inflow of northbound funds to A shares and the inflow of southbound funds to Hong Kong stocks will remain strong.

A high-quality fund manager in Beijing said that Hong Kong stocks and China’s economic cycle are more closely related. Each time the economic cycle goes up, Hong Kong stocks will perform better. China’s economic recovery in 2021 may exceed expectations, and the Hong Kong stock market is expected to usher in a better performance. “Our new fund can invest less than 50% of Hong Kong stocks, and will focus on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market. Especially companies with price advantages and high-quality leading companies with A-shares will become an important direction for portfolio construction.”

“‘The proportion of stocks subject to southbound trading does not exceed 50% of the fund’s stock assets’ has become a standard feature of domestic fund products. With the leading companies in the A-share market already quite expensive, domestic institutions may pay more attention to opportunities in the Hong Kong market .” Cai Carr said.

　　More optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market

　　Or usher in a dual increase in liquidity and valuation

Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply. Many industry professionals believe that under the influence of factors such as accelerated capital inflows, domestic economic recovery, and Hong Kong stock valuations, the market outlook is worth looking forward to.

Guo Chengdong, General Manager of the Overseas and Portfolio Investment Department of Debon Funds, said that important changes have taken place in the ecology of Hong Kong stocks. The first is the improvement of liquidity. The accelerated inflow of southbound trading funds is very significant. Two weeks is equivalent to 20% of the inflow of last year. ; Secondly, the listing of new economic targets will be the highlight of the Hong Kong stock market this year.The new rules for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have been continuously optimized, allowing emerging and innovative companies with the same shares with different rights to be listed, and allowing non-profit pharmaceutical and biological targets to participate in Southbound trading, which will further attract funds to Hong Kong stocks and enhance market liquidity; third, in valuation Under the advantage, the new economyenterpriseBringing live water, I believe that this year will see the Hong Kong stock market liquidity and valuation increase.

The main reasons Cai Carr is optimistic about Hong Kong stocks include, first of all, relying on the Chinese economy. At a time when the impact of the epidemic is difficult to quickly eliminate and the global economic recovery is weak, the Hong Kong stock market relies on China’s economy, and the fundamentals will lead the world; second, the continuous investment of southbound funds, only the southbound trading channel has accounted for nearly 10% of the Hong Kong stock market turnover. %, the proportion of Mainland funds is close to 20%. The pricing power of the Hong Kong stock market is accelerating its transfer to domestic funds, which is expected to further systematically increase the valuation of Hong Kong stocks; third, as a global depression, its price-performance ratio is prominent; finally, with the return of outstanding domestic companies to Hong Kong stocks in recent years and the reform of the Hang Seng index compilation system, Hong Kong stocks The market structure is also undergoing changes, which will effectively increase the market’s attention to and allocation value to the Hong Kong stock market.

(Source: China Fund News)

(Editor in charge: DF512)