原标题：谁的狂欢节？ ！ 恒生指数跌近一千点，香港基金经理倒水！ 南向基金再次暴涨，买入263亿美元，但A50暴跌。 发生了什么？
概要
[Whosecarnival?!HangSengIndexpullsHongKongfundmanagerstopourcoldwater!Whathappenedtothere-buyingofsouthwardcapital?OnJanuary19theHongKongstockmarketsuddenlybrokeoutTheHangSengIndexoncerosebynearly1000pointsandthewholedayturnoverexceeded300billionHongKongdollarsTheHongKongstockETFstradedintheA-sharemarketareextremelyhotTwovarietiesof513900and513990evenhavedailylimitpricesandtheremainingETFshavealsorisenacrosstheboardThiskindofbigsceneseemstohaveonlyappearedinthe2007globalbullmarket(BrokerChina)
On January 19, the Hong Kong stock market broke out suddenly.Hang Seng IndexAt one time, it rose by nearly 1,000 points, and the whole day’s turnover also exceeded 300 billion Hong Kong dollars.In A sharesmarketHong Kong stocks tradedETFUnusually hot, the two varieties of 513900 and 513990 even saw daily limit prices, and the remaining ETFs also rose across the board. This kind of big scene seems to have only appeared in the global bull market in 2007.
However, the popularity of Hong Kong stocks seems to have squeezed funds from the A-share market to a certain extent. In the afternoon, A50 plunged sharply, driving the three major A-share stock indexes to sell off across the board.Among them, the holdings were greatly reduced by US capitalKweichow MoutaiCorrectThe Shanghai Composite IndexThe decline contributed the most.
Although mainland institutions are generally more optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, a Hong KongfundManager toldBrokerageChinese reporters, Hong Kong stock ETFs have seen a high level of premium, which means that mainland funds are a bit too hot. In fact, Hong Kong stocks do not have leeks, there are few retail investors, and foreign capital does not play with domestic capital at all. Now the funds rushed in basically have to act as receivers. He believes that the capital switching between A shares and Hong Kong shares like today is not rational, and it is better to stay in A shares.
Money is flooding
Today, the Hong Kong market ushered in a bright moment. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed up 2.7%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.84%, and major Hong Kong stock indexes rose almost across the board.
The most important thing is that the market can see incremental capital entering the market. The market’s heavy trading volume exceeded 300 billion Hong Kong dollars, an increase of nearly 80 billion Hong Kong dollars from the previous trading day.Southbound funds are undoubtedly hypeMain force, The data show that the capital goes southNet inflowOver 26.3 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the disk, the real estate, medical, financial, and consumer goods sectors are strong.Anta Sports、Sunny Optical Technology、BYD Electronics、CICC, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, etc. all reached new highs.
Hong Kong stock ETFs in the mainland market have surged across the board, and two of them also have daily limit prices. The degree of popularity is evident.
Based on information from all aspects, there will be more and more funds in the Hong Kong market in the future.Assistant to the HKMAPresident(Foreign Affairs) Chen WeiminyuAsian FinanceThe forum stated that although the population of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area only accounts for 5% of China, the proportion of high-net-worth population is as high as 20%.inFinancial managementUnder the general development, he pointed out that as a regulatory agency, the primary concern is the different needs of China and Hong Kong, and the second is to protect two-way rights. It will not pose new risks to one of them, while promoting the wealth management business in Hong Kong.
Chai Zhijie, head of capital markets and chief investment officer of Ping An Asset Management (Hong Kong), said on the same occasion that more interconnection measures will help China and Hong KongCash flowAsset management institutions will benefit, and investors will have more investment options. At the same time, it can consolidate Hong Kong’sInternational financeCenter and offshoreRMBThe position of the center.
What is the A-share diving?
Compared with the strength of Hong Kong stocks, the performance of A shares today can be described as bleak. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.83% to 3566.38 points;Shenzhen Component IndexFell 1.74% to 15003.99 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell 2.05% to 3,084.49 points.
From the perspective of the decline process, the sudden dive of A50 has a greater impact on the A-share market. This afternoon, the A50 futures index suddenly fell sharply, and the three major A-share indexes also fell.
From the perspective of the kill-drop structure, the White Horse stocks fell across the board. among them,Kweichow MoutaiFell 2.6% and contributed the most to the Shanghai Composite Index.Sany Heavy Industry、Hengrui Medicine、Industrial Fulian、Kingsoft OfficeOther stocks also contributed a larger decline.On the news, there are media reports. Data from the US Capital Group’s official website shows that as of the end of 2020, the group’s American Funds-Europacific Growth Fund (American Funds-Europacific Growth Fund) heldKweichow Moutai7,161,704 shares, compared with 7,161,804 shares at the end of the third quarter, a decrease of 5.9%. Another fund under the Capital Group that holds more shares in Kweichow Moutai, the American Fund——New worldThe American Funds-New World Fund also slightly reduced its holdings in Moutai during the period. This fund holds 2531184 shares of Kweichow Moutai at the end of 2020, a decrease of 0.55% from the end of the third quarter.
However, many do not require much capitalthemeHowever, the stocks are going strong. Today, there are 101 stocks with daily stop-ups and only 7 stocks with daily stop-ups. Increased stocks amounted to 2,328, while only 1,619 stocks fell. Obviously, after the early blocs disappeared, the money-making effect of A shares has picked up.
Some analysts believe that there is a clear blue chip bubble in the current A-share market. The divergence between valuation and earnings growth is rapidly widening.Quality in A sharesthe companyIn the context of the emergence of a bubble, the single-day net purchases of southbound funds have continued to reach tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars since 2021, and the importance of the southward strategy has been highlighted. Therefore, today’s market may be a result of the A-share Baotuan Army’s move to Hong Kong stocks.
Go to the Hong Kong stock market to act as a receiver?
Guosheng Securities Zhang Qiyao said that the southward capital has become the most important increase and ballast for Hong Kong stocks. In 2020, the net outflow of foreign capital from Hong Kong stocks is close to HK$1.9 trillion.Even if we exclude the huge reduction in the scale of Hong Kong stocks under custody of Citigroup and Standard Chartered during the full outbreak of the domestic epidemic on January 20 and February 10, 2020, and the number of Hong Kong stocks under custody under Citi’s account on November 5, 2020AlibabaAs a result of the substantial increase in stocks, the outflow of foreign capital in 2020 will still be close to HK$600 billion. But even in the bleakness of global risk appetite shrinking and Hong Kong stocks underperforming, the southward capital still flows in substantially, becoming the most important supporting force in the Hong Kong stock market. In 2020, onlySouthbound tradingThe cumulative net inflow of the channel is close to 700 billion Hong Kong dollars, which largely hedges the impact of foreign capital outflow. Domestic funds going southward have in fact become the most important capital increase in the Hong Kong stock market and the ballast stone that determines market performance.
According to Huaxing Securities’ estimates, theMarket valueThe proportion has risen from 33% to 45% in the past three years; this proportion is expected to continue to rise steadily to 55% or even higher in the next three to five years. In this process, funds are expected to continue to pursue new economic component stocks, and the Hong Kong stock market as a whole is also expected to obtain a higher level of valuation, liquidity, trading volume and representativeness.
However, Hong Kong’s mainstream capital is not optimistic about the surge of domestic capital in the Hong Kong stock market.A Hong Kong fund manager said: “I found that A-share fund managers sold A shares 80 timesP/E ratioRan to Hong Kong stocks to buy 80 times the stock. It is better to stay in A shares if you switch like this. (Funds) Don’t go south. Every time you get a big battle, you may not even find the leeks. Is this here to take the order? “
He said that there are very few retail investors in the Hong Kong stock market, foreign investors do not play with domestic capital at all, and foreign investors do not think that Hong Kong stocks can represent China’s core assets. On the whole, there is a high probability that foreign capital will only buy A shares.And now that most of the cheap Hong Kong stocks are from the MainlandAnalystOr fund managers, few people in the Hong Kong industry have expressed such views. Therefore, it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue to toss for a few days, and A-shares will still become the main direction.
(Source: Brokerage China)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this stand.