超过5000亿的涌入！ “爆炸基地”能否继续轻易地相互依附？ _东方财富网

概要

[Over500billioninflux!Canthe”explosivebase”continuetoclingtoeachothereasily?】WhatexcitesinvestorsisthattheEFundissuedtodayhasasubscriptionfundofmorethan150billionyuanarecordhighHowevertheliquorsectorcontinuestofallandtherearestilldebatesoverwhetherthegroupwillcollapse

After three days of adjustment, A-shares rebounded strongly today, and individual stocks changed the phenomenon that they fell more and rose less than before. Over 3,000 stocks rose in the day.What makes investors even more excited is the competitive advantage of E Fund issued todayenterprise, The subscription funds exceeded 150 billion yuan, a record high. However, the liquor sector continues to fall, and there are still debates over whether the group will collapse.

　　newFund issuanceContinue to be hot

Entering 2021, newfundThe release continues to be hot.According to Shanghai Securities News, E Fund’s competitive advantage company issued today has a subscription capital of over 150 billion yuan, a recordPublic offeringA new subscription record in the history of the fund. In July last year, the subscription fund of Penghua Ingenious Selection managed by Wang Zonghe was 137.1 billion yuan.

In addition, today GF, Huatai Berry,Bosera FundThere are also new funds issued on the same day. According to channel news, the funds under Huatai Berry and GF are likely to be “sold out in one day.” Bosera will issue two funds at the same time, one will end the day, and the other will raise nearly 10 billion yuan. In the first 10 trading days of this year (as of January 15), there have been 17 “sunlight bases”. Counting the number of hot funds issued today, the subscription funds attracted by these funds have exceeded 500 billion yuan.

　　Baotuan stocks continue to loosen

Today, after the three major A-share indexes dropped briefly at the beginning of the market, they all fluctuated higher. They all maintained high and narrow ranges in the afternoon until the close.Shanghai IndexRose 0.84%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.58%,Growth Enterprise Market IndexIncreased by 1.92%. Before the change of individual stocks, the phenomenon of more declines and less rises, more than 3,000 stocks rose during the day.

Specific to the disk, institutional holdings or recognized core assets have recently been uncomfortable. Especially baijiu continues to fall today,Luzhou LaojiaoFell 4.72%, a 13.89% retracement from the recent high (the same below);Alcoholic WineFell 4.48%, and recently retreated 23.9%;Yanghe sharesIt fell 3.53% and recently retraced 25.47%. In addition,Wuliangye、Gujing Gongjiu、Old white dry wine、Shuijingfang、KouzijiaowithThis worldAnd so on, the recent retracement is obvious.

In addition to liquor, a number of well-known Baotuan stocks have also retreated significantly recently.such asLongji sharesRecently retracement 11.82%; Ningdeshi recently retracement 9.67%;Hengrui MedicineThe recent retracement is 7.74%;China Free14.81% retracement;Sany Heavy Industry14.83% retracement;Yili sharesRetracement of 8.37% and so on.

The following picture shows the top 50 companies holding positions of public funds (data at the end of the third quarter of 2020). After reaching a record high during the year, the retracement (compared with the latest closing price and the highest price in history) exceeded 24 companies:

　　Where did the withdrawn money go?

Of course, although the loosening of the Baotuan plate is the focus of everyone’s attention, everyone is more concerned about the withdrawal from the Baotuan plate.Cash flowWhere to go.

From a comprehensive market perspective, there are three main points of view:

First, the funds flowed tobank,estate,InsuranceFor the representative low valuation cycle sector.And recently, the “Three Stupid”bank、real estatewithInsuranceIt’s really good performance, especiallybankThe plate even staged a collective carnival last Friday.Today the banking sector continues to rise 0.9%, of whichPing An Bank、Industrial Bank、Bank of NingbowithHangzhou Bank4 companies hit a record high in intraday trading.

The second is that funds have begun to buy technology stocks again, just like spring 2020.If you look at the stock typeETFIf so, technology stocks, represented by chips, are all the rage these days.Oriental wealthChoice dataIt is shown that since 2021, there are 12 stock ETFs that have increased by more than 10%, and 9 of them are technology ETFs. In particular, the top 4 increase are all chip ETFs.

Third, funds are flowing southward into Hong Kong stocks. The basis for this view is mainly based on the recent southward capital flow.Oriental wealthChoiceData shows that since December 21, 2020, Southbound funds have been trading for 19 consecutive daysNet inflow. Entering 2021, southbound funds will have a daily net inflow of tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars.Today’s net inflow of southbound funds is 22.971 billion Hong Kong dollars, a recordSouthbound tradingA record high since the opening. The accumulated net inflow of 161.4 billion yuan in 19 trading days.

according toBrokerageChina reports, many issued in 2021Partial equity fundproduct, All listed Hong Kong stock assets as the main investment objects, and the investment ratios were basically the same. For example, the Southern Consumption Upgrade Fund, disclosed in the prospectus, the ratio of fund stock investment to fund assets ranges from 60%-95%, and the proportion of Southbound Stock Connect stock investment shall not exceed 50% of stock assets. An industry insider in South China believes that in the context of the rapid growth of stock prices and high valuations of A-share core assets being grouped by funds, it is doubtful whether all the funds raised will be allocated to A-share assets, and it is likely to pass through the channel of Southbound Trading Diverted out.

　　Is it rotation or style switching?

Recently, many popular funds managed by celebrity fund managers have seen huge differences in net worth and estimated net worth.Including Ruiyuan Growth Value A managed by Fu Pengbo and Liu Yanchun managedInvescoGreat Wall Xinxing Growth Hybrid, Xingquan Heyi A managed by Xie Zhiyu, ABC Industry 4.0 Hybrid managed by Zhao Yu, etc.

From the above, it can be seen that the loosening of the group is an indisputable fact, but the question is whether the market is currently a style switch or a regular sector rotation has become the focus of market debate.

Some people say that the collapse of the group, or the market style switching is not so easy:

　　Guojin SecuritiesRecent studies have stated that the sector’s boom in institutional holdings is still in the upward stage, and the industry logic is difficult to falsify in the short term. Subsequent catalysts to break the current institutional grouping or the prosperity from other sectors exceeded expectations. However, the valuation of the Baotuan sector relative to the broader market has not yet reached the extreme bubble level. If only the factor of valuation and cost performance is relied on, the loosening process of the Baotuan may be relatively upset.

The Macro Strategy Department of Boshi Fund believes that behind the concentrated shareholding of institutions in the past two years is the pursuit of a certain premium for leading companies by loose liquidity, which is reasonable.First, in the global lowinterest rateEven negativeinterest rateUnder the environment, housing and housing are not speculated, and residents’ wealthreal estateGradually flow to the equity market. Second, the competitive advantages and profitability of leading companies in various industries have become more apparent, and it is inevitable that leading core assets will be centrally held by institutions. Thirdly, the money-making effect of funds has increased substantially in the past two years, and the large number of issuances of hot funds have also strengthened the market’s tendency to group publicly held stocks.

　　Guotai JunanHuang Yanming, director of the Securities Research Institute, said today that in the context of global political instability and arduous epidemic prevention tasks, the global economy and the Chinese economy are still in a highly uncertain environment, which has led to investors’ risk appetites being always low. In the second half, it is difficult to enter the upper half. This is like the wind only blows to the residents of the first to fifth floors, but not to the residents of the sixth to tenth floors. Therefore, investors prefer to choose low-risk stocks. , Blue chip stocks with high certainty, due to investors’ risk appetites that are difficult to switch from low to high by a large margin, coupled with the role of trading, it is difficult to disintegrate in the short term. The market for blue chips will continue, and the market style will not appear large The switch of stocks is superimposed on the marginal improvement of liquidity expectations. The wind only blows on blue chip stocks, and liquor is precisely the sector with the lowest risk in the entire market.

Some people also said that it is necessary to re-examine the investment value of Baotuan shares:

　　Southern FundLi Zhenxing, executive director of the equity investment department and fund manager, emphasized that it is not just because some companies currently have bright prospects or business trends, and ignore the requirements for purchase valuation, which is equivalent to giving up the margin of safety. From the historical data of global stocks, valuation increase only accounts for a small proportion of long-term income sources, and the main income source is the growth of listed companies. Therefore, in investment, we still need to spend more energy to select good investment opportunities from the bottom up.

According to the analysis of the macro strategy department of Bosera Funds, the companies organized by the group are the epitome of the most outstanding listed companies in China, and they are also quite competitive globally.But good assets also need goodprice. A-share high valuation longLong termAssets are facing the pressure of valuation digestion, and Baotuan stocks will inevitably diverge in the future. Only when the high growth rate of the year and the target that can continue to the next year will be more likely to cross the cycle.

Su Changjing, head of the quantitative investment department of Hongde Fund, said that in recent years, high-quality companies have enjoyed valuation premiums and liquidity premiums. Professional investors represented by public funds have achieved very good excess returns. This year, we need to appropriately lower our earnings expectations. This is an unavoidable fact before everyone.

Do you think that the recent collective retracement of Baotuan stocks and the rise of banking, technology and other industries are normal market rotations or style switching?

(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)

(Editor in charge: DF075)