市值在半天之内飙升了3000亿！ “中国巴菲特”引爆了仍处于十年低位的银行股票估值。 春天来了吗？ _东方财富网

原标题：市值在半天内飙升了3000亿！ “中国巴菲特”以十年来的最低价引爆了银行股票的估值。 春天来了吗？

概要

[Marketvaluesoared300billioninhalfaday!”ChinaBuffett”detonatedthevaluationofbankstockswhichisstillataten-yearlowpriceHasspringcome?BoostedbythisnewsonJanuary15ththebankingsectorroseagaincollectivelybecomingthemosteye-catchingsectorinthetwomarketsinthemorningandanumberofbankstocksarenowrisingrapidlyAccordingtopreliminaryestimatesthemarketvalueofthebankingsectorsurgedbyabout300billionyuanonthemorningofJanuary15

Boosted by this news, on January 15,bankThe sector once again rose collectively, becoming the most eye-catching sector in the two cities in the morning.bankStocks are now skyrocketing.A rough estimate, the morning of January 15bankThe market value of the sector soared by about 300 billion yuan.

Among them, get Li LuAdd warehouseofPostal Savings BankThe straight-line daily limit, as a large bank stock, such a strong daily limit is rare.Postal Savings BankH shares also rose 10.86%, an intraday gain of more than 17%.

It is worth mentioning that at around 8 am today, this WeChat account launched a heavy article, reporting that the legendary tycoon Li Lu, known as the “Chinese version of Buffett,” his Himalaya Capital, had a dip at the end of 2020.Postal Savings BankH-shares, cumulative holdings reached 1.006 billion shares, and more than 4.2 billion Hong Kong dollars were used. For details, please poke: Heavy!The legendary tycoon has built a warehouse with 4 billion yuan, and Munger “certifies” that he is China Buffett and buysBYDRecommended by him! Is the bank the old liquor?

　　Multiple banksPerformanceOver-expected valuation still has certain advantages

In addition to investment tycoons bargaining for banks, the bank’s own performance exceeding expectations has also become an important factor in stimulating the sector to strengthen.

For example, on the evening of January 14,China Merchants BankThe disclosed performance report shows that the bank expects to achieveNet profit97.342 billion yuan,Year-on-yearAn increase of 4.82%.

Another joint-stock bankIndustrial BankExpress report shows that the bank expectsNet profit66.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%.

inprofitAt the same time as the growth, the overall asset quality of the two banks also improved. For example, as of the end of 2020,Industrial BankThe non-performing loan balance was 49.656 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.366 billion yuan from the end of the previous year; the non-performing loan ratio was 1.25%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the end of the previous year; the provision coverage ratio was 218.83%, an increase of 19.70 percentage points from the end of the previous year.

According to Wind data, as of January 14, 2021, the Wind Bank Index P/E ratio (TTM) is 6.74 times. This value is not high in recent years, only slightly higher than the average level of the last ten years.

The average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Wind Bank Index in the past ten years is 6.48 times.MedianIt is 6.45 times.

The price-to-book ratio seems to be a more important indicator for evaluating the valuation of bank stocks.From this indicator, the banking sector still has a relatively high valuation advantage andboundary of safety。

At present, a considerable number of A-share bank stocks are still in a broken state. As of January 14, 2021, the Wind Bank Index P/B ratio was 0.74 times, which was significantly lower than the average and median of the last ten years. The data shows that the average P/E ratio of the Wind Bank Index in the past ten years is 1.04 times, and the median is 0.96 times.

　　Is the spring of bank stock investment coming?

“The People’s Liberation Army is here, the silver fans hold on!” The performance of today’s bank stocks has given investors who have been struggling with bank stocks for a long time to see hope. Some people posted this in the forum to express their joy.

Although the overall performance of banking stocks in 2020 is poor, in the eyes of many insiders, the fundamentals of the entire banking industry are actually getting better, and the next two years may be a big year for banking stocks.

　　On the one hand, the thinking of financial supervision has returned to the right track. Licensed operation and strengthened supervision have become the general direction. Bank licenses are more valuable and scarce.The mutual gold platform represented by Alipay is offline in batchesthe Internetdepositproduct, The actual operation of P2P online lending institutions across the country has dropped from about 5,000 during the peak period to the current single digits. Most of the markets that these institutions withdraw will be made up by banks. And after a series of risk education about financial chaos, people’s recognition of banks has increased.

　　On the other hand, the worst is expected or has passed.Guosen SecuritiesbankteamchiefAnalystWang Jian believes that the epidemic will temporarily have a major impact on my country’s economy, and the market is very pessimistic about bank asset quality. This is also an important reason for the decline in bank net profit in the first half of 2020 and the poor performance of capital market stock prices. As the economy continues to recover, he believes that banks have passed the darkest moment. Although the actual rate of bad generation has not yet seen an inflection point, this factor has been fully reflected in the stock price, and banks follow the principle of multiple confirmations, multiple write-offs, and more accruals. The principles have been fully prepared, and the pressure on banks to deal with bad practices will be significantly reduced in the future.

Xu Linshu, executive director of Shenzhen Private Equity Yidi Investment, told the Securities Times reporter that the banking industry is actually a very good business, but mostBank of ChinamarketpriceThe performance is generally 60% to 70% off (price-to-book ratio method or PB). The reason is nothing more than limited industry growth, economic de-leveraging, business homogeneity and support for the real economy. After the banking industry supported the real economy by RMB 1.5 trillion last year, some recent bank performance bulletins showed that the bank has reached an inflection point in its performance in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Xu Linshu believes that low valuation is only a margin of safety, and profit growth is the “key to driving stock prices.”variable“. In the context of business homogeneity, there is technology empowerment (Internet BankSuch as online payment,creditBanks such as loans, etc.) and differentiated operations (such as wealth management) will surely win in the future. Looking back in history, banks with consistently excellent operating quality ROE, profitable growth, effective asset scale growth, and well-controlled bad debt rates actually have Alpha investment income relative to the entire banking industry every year.

“Banks’ current market with 6 or 7 times PE valuation can have a static rate of return of about 16 points per year, which can kill other major types of assets. As long as there is a relatively high static return, for example, it can reach around 26%. It doesn’t necessarily require continuous growth.” Xu Linshu said.

　　Bank of China SecuritiesIn the latestResearch reportThe point of view is that there are three main reasons for the optimistic performance of the banking sector in 2021. First, economic data shows that the steady recovery of the real economy has not changed, which is good for the improvement of bank asset quality; second, it is accompanied by economic recovery.currencyThe marginal convergence of the policy will help ease the pressure on interest rate differentials; third, the bank has undergone pre-adjustment, and the current sector valuation corresponds to 0.81xPB in 2021, with low valuations and lowPositionspecialty. With the gradual improvement of the domestic economic situation, the willingness of the subsequent allocation of the sector is expected to increase.

In terms of investment strategy, the latest research report of Minsheng Securities believes that social financing has peaked, credit tightening, and bank asset side bargaining power has increased; and the lifting of policy restrictions on profit release has promoted the accelerated improvement of bank fundamentals. It is recommended to actively grasp the quotations of the Bank Express from January to February. The quotations are just beginning.From January to February last yearShare23 listed banks released performance bulletins, of which only 3 have been released so far this year. The valuation of bank stocks still has room to rise.recommendIndustrial Bank、China Merchants Bank、Ping An Bank、Changshu Bank。

　　Industrial SecuritiesThe research report believes that the long-term optimistic about the strategic/business leadership capabilities of industry leaders, including China Merchants Bank, Ping An, Ningbo, etc., are now focusing on stock banks and small banks, with outstanding fundamentals and greater valuation flexibility, including Xingye and Everbright. , Hangzhou, Chengdu, etc.

　　Bank of China SecuritiesIt is recommended to pay attention to characteristic high-quality stocks (such asChina Merchants Bank、Bank of Ningbo、Ping An BankEtc.), and fundamental improvement stocks (such as Industrial Bank, etc.).

　　Zheshang SecuritiesBank research team raised todayChina Merchants BankThe target price of 56.6 yuan indicates that its profit growth rate for the whole year of 2020 will rebound to 5%, and the performance of leading banks will be realized. It is expected to re-establish market confidence and catalyze the market of bank stocks.

(Source: Securities Times Net)

(Editor in charge: DF515)