概要
[Evaporate165billionaday!Themostpowerfulsectionfellagroupofleadersweretakenandthegroupwasreallygoingtocollapse?】TodaythethreemajorA-shareindexesfellsharplyThe“groupstocks”headedbybaijiucanbecalledcollectivelyturningoffthelightsandeatingnoodlesJiuguijiuAVICXifeiHangfaPowerGreatWallMotorsdirectlyfelltothelimitWuliangyeBYDChinaChinaFreeLongjisharesfellmorethan5%SuddenlythevoicesinthemarketaboutthecollapseofthegrouphaverevivedandrecentlysomefundmanagershaveindeedbeguntoadjusttheirpositionsIstheorganizationreallygoingtocollapse?
Today, the three major A-share indexes have collectively plummeted, and the “group stocks” led by liquor can be called collectively turning off the lights and eating noodles.Alcoholic liquor、AVIC Xifei、Aero Engine、Great Wall MotorDirect limit,Wuliangye、BYD、China Free、Longji sharesWait for more than 5%. For a while,marketVoices about the collapse of Baotuan have revived, and recently there have indeed been somefundThe manager began to adjust positions. Is the organization really going to collapse?
The liquor sector evaporates 165 billion a day
Today, the liquor sector, which is the representative of “Baotuan stocks,” plummeted again. The sector index plummeted 4.78% throughout the day.Juli Rigging、Alcoholic liquorwithYuyuan sharesDirect limit.Kouzijiao、Dahao Technology、Golden seed wine、Wuliangye14 stocks fell more than 5%.One day for the whole liquor sectorMarket value165 billion yuan was evaporated.
What’s more alarming is that most liquor stocks didn’t just start to fall today, and many have been callbacks for many days.Oriental wealthChoice dataDisplay, such asWuliangyeSince the record high price was set in the intraday trading on January 6, it has so far pulled back nearly 14%.and alsoYanghe shares, Also hit a record high price in intraday trading on January 6, and the correction so far has exceeded 20%. In addition,Jin Huijiu、Highland Barley Wine、Golden seed wineFor the stocks that have soared recently, the recent corrections have also exceeded 20%. in contrast,Kweichow MoutaiwithLuzhou LaojiaoThe two are relatively strongthe company。
Popular sector leaders have plummeted
Not only liquor stocks, but recent hot new energy vehicles, military industry, photovoltaic and other leading stocks have also plummeted, many of which are well-known “group stocks.”
Oriental wealthChoiceAccording to the data, among the 149 billion giants of A-shares (according to the market value of January 13), 99 have fallen today, accounting for 66.4%. Among them, 24 fell more than 5%,COSCO Shipping Holdings、AVIC Xifei、Aero Engine、Great Wall MotorLower limitLongji sharesFell 6.65%,Sany Heavy IndustryFell 6.56%,China FreePlummeted by 6.48%,BYDTumbled 6.41% and so on.
New forces are rising
Although the collective waterloo of liquor, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other bloc sectors, two new forces have emerged in the market in the past two days.
One is the “601 Legion” or “Chinese prefix”. This sector continues to rise sharply today following the sharp rise yesterday.CRRC2 consecutive daily limit in the past two days (the cumulative increase since 2021 has reached 43.69%),China Automobile Research InstituteIt is also daily limit,China Railway、CAMCE、China Science BiographySoaring over 5%. Some people in the industry pointed out that the collective rise of Chinese prefixes is that, on the one hand, the quality of the Chinese prefixes is not bad. On the other hand, there is still a relatively large amount of funds in the market and there is a need for allocation.
The second is the resurgence of semiconductor stocks such as chips.The data shows that since 2021 the chipETF(159995) has increased by 13.03%. The Daily Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index surged 2.83%, and it rose more than 5% during the session.Core Source MicroSoaring 15.04%, Shanghai SiliconindustryUp 13.66%,Anji Technology、Qingyi Optoelectronics、Pure technologyWait 10%.
The market began to worry about grouping
It can be said that for a period of time, a sudden sharp drop in stocks of a group of two institutions has happened occasionally, but it should be said that this is the first time that there has been a collective plunge like today.
Regarding this phenomenon, industry insiders generally believe that after Baotuan stocks experienced a crazy rise, the market began to worry about the sustainability of Baotuan, and many institutions began to warn of the risk of continuing to Baotuan.
Nomura OrientalInternational Securitiesthink,investmentShould prepare for the return of market valuation before the Spring Festival and increase theboundary of safetyPursuit, one is to pay attention to highPerformanceLeading companies in the chemical, real estate, home appliances, semiconductor and other industries with certainty and expected growth in the first quarter; the second is concerned with high dividend yields, high performance stability and underestimationbank、InsurancewithPublic utilitiesWait for the plate.
China Merchants SecuritiesSaid that if there is a rebalancing of the market style, it needs signals of relative performance changes, liquidity changes and incremental capital structure changes. Judging from the relative strength of current performance trends, the technology sector and the small and medium-sized market capitalization sector may have stronger performance trends in 2021. It is recommended that investors pay attention to style change signals and make style rebalancing operations in a timely manner.
Debon FundSpecial account business department executionGeneral managerShi Bin believes: “In the past 15 years in the industry, this extreme market has experienced several times. The prosperity and investment of all industries have cyclical fluctuations. Choosing the appropriate growth rate and valuation level is the king of investment. Don’t be affected by market sentiment. . Whether it is coal and non-ferrous metals from 2006 to 2007, or from 2014 to 2015the InternetFinance, consumption and new energy are all the epitome of industry prosperity in a particular era. Shi Bin further said: “The wave will always pass, and investment must be rational. “
According to the Shanghai Securities News, recently the actual net value of some star funds has deviated greatly from the estimated net value, which means that these fund managers who hold a lot of money have adjusted their positions.Share swap.A prudent fund manager in Shanghai revealed that he has been paying close attention to changes in the market recently.PositionWhen the stock rises sharply, it will be moderateLighten up. According to the fund manager’s understanding, many special account fund managers are more inclined to partially take profits and keep their profits.
Can Bao Tuan really fall apart easily?
Of course, the voice that Baotuan will not disintegrate easily is also high.
Guotai JunanStrategyteamA document was issued within the day, stating that short-term grouping is difficult to dissolve, but the bubble will dissipate with the emergence of liquidity turning points. The market leader in the former market has deviated from the expected link to the trading dimension, and the market has performance in both “breadth” and “depth”, from the leader of the good track to the leader of the ordinary track. This is not the expected dimension of fundamentals to be able to influence, but the result of further strengthening of the transaction dimension. When will the ultimate style end? We need to wait for a liquidity turning point that can have a profound impact on the transaction dimension. We believe that it is more likely to continue to enjoy the bubble in the short term, and the probability of an inflection point before the Spring Festival is extremely low. But the team also said that as long as it is a bubble, it will eventually dissipate.
Industrial SecuritiesWang Delun said that in the short term, if the valuations of some leading stocks increase too fast and the chips are too concentrated, it may cause the pressure to digest the valuation of future performance to rise, and it is easy to cause large fluctuations or even certain adjustments due to disturbances from external factors.But in the long run, China’s economy is undergoing a round of extensive and profound changes.enterpriseIt has begun to be independent of the overall trend of the industry, and will enjoy the bonus of optimized structure and more institutional dividends for a long time. Therefore, the core assets have entered a long-term bull market, and it is only the beginning.
Essence Securities Chen Guo also believes that in the medium term, if the economic and liquidity environment does not undergo major changes, then “institutional groups” will continue to exist, and leading stocks will likely rise, but the rise in leading stocks will consume more liquidity. , The concentrated high-speed rise similar to last week is unlikely to continue, and the rate of rise will slow down. Of course, if there is a major external shock or liquidity cannot support the upward trend of the current leading stocks, the market will face a retracement.
In the face of the collective decline in institutional holdings stocks today, do you think institutional holdings really areThe end of the crossbowYet?
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
(Editor in charge: DF142)
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