原标题：三天内售出5.4亿张！ 海南的免税销售和股票价格齐头并进，十年之内如何吞下8000亿个蛋糕？
概要
[Sold540millionin3days!Hainan’sduty-freesalesandstockpricesflytogetheroverthepast10yearshowcan800billioncakesbeswallowed?InthepastfewdaysmanyshopsinShenzhenHuaqiangNorthAmericanMakeupCityhavebeenshutdownforcounterfeitgoodsandsmugglingThedeclineofthemarketherewillundoubtedlybenefitthesalesoftheduty-freemarketinHainanIslandsAccordingtothestatisticsofHaikouCustomsduringtheNewYear’sDayholidaythisyearthecustomssupervisedthesaleof669000duty-freeitemsonoutlyingislands76000shoppersand540millionyuaninsalesanincreaseof200%809%and19516%respectivelyoverthesameperiodlastyearNewYear’sDayholidayshavereachednewhighsovertheyears(21stCenturyBusinessHerald)
Introduction:According to statistics from Haikou Customs, during the New Year’s Day holiday this year, the customs supervised the sale of outlying islands.duty free669,000 items, 76,000 shoppers and 540 million yuan in salesRMB。
RecentlyShenzhen HuaqiangMany shops in the North American makeup city were closed for counterfeiting and smuggling. The decline of the market here will undoubtedly benefit the sales of the duty-free market in Hainan Islands.
According to statistics from Haikou Customs, during the New Year’s Day holiday this year, the customs supervised the sale of outlying islands.Duty FreeThere were 669,000 items, 76,000 shoppers, and a sales amount of 540 million yuan, an increase of 200%, 80.9% and 195.16% respectively over the same period last year, setting a new high for the New Year’s Day holiday.
It is worth noting that the statistics collected this time are 7 companies across the islandDuty Free ShopAccording to Hainan Province’s plan, three more duty-free shops will be added to the market before the Spring Festival this year, forming a new market pattern of ten shops on one island.
Shen Xiaoming, secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee, said in an interview with the media that the scale of Chinese tax-free consumption is currently around 1 trillion yuan. Hainan’s goal is to occupy 10% of China’s tax-free consumption quota by 2022, or 100 billion yuan. By 2030, we hope to reach 700-800 billion yuan.
This leaping development growth rate undoubtedly requires a new market structure. Is Hainan ready?
7 stores in 3 days 540 million
Everything came too fast, like a tornado.
At the end of August 2020, Hainan just announced the addition of a tax-free operation entity for outlying islands. Four months later, three new stores will rise from Sanya.
It’s important to know that the pre-opening period for general retail stores is at least one year, not to mention certification, channels,warehouseDuty-free shops that all need special supervision, everything is incredibly fast, abnormally, and also at the current Hainan speed.
Consumer group of multiple securities institutionsAnalystFrom the end of September 2020, I will go to Hainan to explore the store from time to time to observe the progress of the new store. At the beginning, they revealed to reporters that everything that is messy seems to be difficult to fix in a short period of time. The 21st Century Business Herald reporters also visited four places in Sanya, Haikou at the end of November 2020. At that time, fences and scaffolding on every construction site were It hasn’t been demolished yet, and construction is still underway, and the Aquarius store in Riyue Square has not even completed the relocation of the original store.
Who knows, just three months later, three of the shops were completed as scheduled.On December 30, 2020, three new duty-free stores on outlying islands in Sanya, Hainan will open as planned, and the three new and expanded duty-free stores in Haikou are expected to open before the Spring Festival.
On December 30, 2020, 21st Century Business Herald reporters in Sanya Hailu Duty Free City and Zhongfu SanyaDuty-free shoppingIt was seen on the park site that the crowds of tourists blocked the road in front of the two duty-free shops and turned red. There is also an endless stream of people in the store.
Among the crowded people, there are actually many tax-free operators and travel industry professionals, as well as analysts from securities institutions, who come to observe their opponents and appreciate the details.The reporter saw that the head of Tmall International’s liquor procurement focused on visiting the liquor sales areas of the newly opened stores. There were also representatives of foreign-funded operators who told reporters that it is already very powerful to open such a scale in a short period of time. But he regrets thatBrandThe quantity is not enough, and the attraction is not enough.
“The above-mentioned new players of the Hainan Islands Duty Free and CDF’s stores have formed a certain difference in location, which can cover more Hainan tourists and local residents, while competing with each other and complementing each other.”Guosen SecuritiesZeng Guang, assistant to the director of the Institute of Economic Research and leader of the large consumer group, believes that as the future policy dividends of Hainan’s outlying island tax-free policy continue to be released, a certain tax-free shopping cluster effect can also be formed in Hainan.
In fact, the enthusiasm for consumption brought about by the new competition in new stores has been shown in subsequent statistics. According to statistics from Haikou Customs, during the New Year’s Day holiday this year, the customs supervised the sale of 669,000 duty-free items on outlying islands, 76,000 shoppers, and sales of 540 million yuan, an increase of 200%, 80.9% and 195.16% respectively over the same period last year, marking a new record New year’s holiday new high.
The capital market also gave positive feedback, and A shares resumed trading after New Year’s Day.China FreeThe stock price directly climbed up to 300 yuan per share. In the past week, the stock price was as high as 311.4 yuan per share, and the market value was stable at 500 billion yuan, surpassing the 600 billion market value.
Because of its dazzling performance,China FreeThe market value in 2020 will reach 551.5 billion yuan, a record high, while the market value ranking is listed nationwidethe companyIt has jumped from 71 in the previous year to 23.
In 2021, can CDFG maintain such a rapid development momentum?
1+4 main operation new pattern
Entering 2021, the most obvious change isHainan Outlying Islands Duty Free is now a single entity of CDFG, with 4 stores (Sanya Haitang Bay Store, Haikou Meilan Airport Store, Haikou Riyue Plaza Store, and Boao Duty Free Store), which will soon enter 1+4 main operation, 10 stores The new stage of the store.“Hainan Islands Duty Free has entered a new pattern of moderate competition among multiple operating entities.” Zeng Guang said.
Of these 10 stores, 6 are operated by CDFG, and the remaining 4 are operated by four companies that have newly obtained outlying island duty-free operations last year, namely, China Overseas Personnel Service Co., Ltd., Hainan Development Holdings Co., Ltd., Hainan Tourism Investment Development Co., Ltd., Shenzhen State-owned Duty FreeProduct(Group) Co., Ltd.
The Hainan government has introduced so many business entities to jointly expand the outlying island duty-free market, although moderate competition and diversion may be inevitable to a certain extent.However, Zeng Guang believes that although the four new players in Hainan Island Duty Free have their own characteristics, they still have a gap with CDF in terms of scale and card slots.
“New entrants have a relatively large gap with CDF in terms of scale.” Zeng Guang pointed out that CDF ranked fourth in the global tax exemption in 2019, and the first half of 2020 is the world’s tax-free first. Although there are factors due to the epidemic, it is also reflected. The comprehensive procurement and operation capabilities of CDFG continue to improve, and CDFG’s cooperation with brand owners has been further strengthened during the epidemic.Even if tax-free players in other isolated islands may adopt cooperation with foreign leaders, considering that the latter does not exclude intermediate profit margins, etc., CDFG’s large-scale procurement advantage is expected to remain prominent for a long time, and it is not only reflected in procurementpriceThe advantage lies in the richness of brand category SKU, etc., best-selling productssupplyAnd so on.
In addition, it also has certain advantages in site selection. Judging from the current layout of duty-free shops, CDF will occupy the duty-free card slots at the Dahainan Airport Hub in Sanya and Haikou at the same time. At the same time, it will expand the Riyue Plaza store in the center of Haikou. In addition, CDFG has set up experience stores in Sanya Nanshan Scenic Area and Mangrove Forest (located in Sanya City) to increase the coverage of tourists’ shopping.
More importantly, CDFG has accumulated certain experience in operation and marketing development compared with other new players.For example, CDFG has accumulated sufficientmemberHowever, previous measures such as active and continuous shopping conversion may have been relatively limited. Since 2020, CDFG has initially demonstrated its membership base advantages through online supplementary purchases. In the future, relying on its online and offline multi-card position linkage layout, At the same time, active member marketing, including the follow-up will not rule out the launch of various VIP services and other diversified operations and marketing measures to improve the shopping experience of tourists.
“From historical experience, the initial opening of new duty-free projects often involves the integration of customs, brand owners, marketing channels, and other aspects. In particular, it often takes a certain amount of time for brands to cooperate in supply, including supply optimization of best-selling products.” Guang said that although there may bePromotionActivities, but considering various factors such as the rationalization of operations, the actual diversion of new players from outlying islands to CDF in the early stage of operation may still be relatively limited.
“Considering the ultimate influence and control of the price of mid-to-high-end luxury brands, and the above-mentioned stores themselves are currently in a period of cultivation and development,” Zeng Guang predicts that although the increase in competitors may not rule out some increaseprice competition, But the risk of fierce price competition is relatively controllable at least for a long time.
Bank of ChinaInternational SecuritiesAnalyst Lin Lin believes:
The addition of new entities and the expansion of the number of duty-free shops are expected to expand the outlying island duty-free market. However, due to CDFG’s outstanding performance in duty-free sales on outlying islands, it is inseparable from good cooperation and communication with upstream brands. It is expected to maintain its advantageous bargaining power and control purchase costs.Lin Lin also believes that the newenterpriseSpeeding up the duty-free competition on outlying islands is also expected to force China to avoidMember Management, Further improvement in marketing.
the InternetBigger variables
Institutional analysis is based on historical experience. The policy changes and sales performance of the Hainan Islands Duty Free Market in the past year have undoubtedly broken through people’s historical perceptions.
According to Shen Xiaoming, Secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee, revealed in an interview with the media,The scale of Chinese tax-free consumption is currently around 1 trillion yuan. Hainan’s goal is to occupy 10% of China’s tax-free consumption quota by 2022, which is 100 billion yuan., And by 2030, when the scale of Chinese tax-free consumption reaches 1.5 trillion yuan, Hainan hopes to get 50% of the tax-free cake, that is, the sales of duty-free goods will reach 700-800 billion yuan.
This is a rather ambitious goal, because the total tax-free sales of Hainan’s outlying islands in 2020 are expected to not exceed 32 billion yuan.The major duty-free operators in Hainan are under great pressure. If they want to expand their sales as soon as possible, they needborrowPower foreign tax-free operators.On December 31, 2020, Hainan Provincial Development Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that it has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dufry, the Swiss tax-free giant, to jointly develop tax-free business in the fast-growing Hainan market and other regions. In addition to providing global brands, Dufry will also share its global experience in the travel retail sector with Hainan Holdings.
The 21st Century Business Herald learned that Haifa Control is also cooperating with Tmall International and will provide a physical store on Tmall International in its new Aquarius store in Riyue Square. The two sides will also cooperate on channels for some duty-free items.The way is expected to beJingdongThe international cooperation model in the sea travel duty-free city is similar.
According to what the reporter saw in Sanya Hailv Duty Free City,JingdongThe international duty-free physical store is located on the second floor of Sanya Hailv Duty Free City.productMainly, it has selected nearly 30 hot-selling items from many internationally renowned brands including Dyson and Delong.In factJingdongInternational also has a cross-border e-commerce experience store on the fourth floor of Hailv City, hoping to use the huge passenger flow to drive its cross-border consumption.
According to the salesperson of Hailv City, the goods purchased at the duty-free physical store are within the 100,000 yuan tax-free consumption limit on the outlying islands, and the products purchased by scanning the QR code at the cross-border e-commerce experience store count as 26,000 cross-border e-commerce consumption per person per year Within the yuan quota, that is to say, the consumption in Hailv City can reach up to 126,000 yuan, which is not shrewd.
According to JD.com, JD International’s online duty-free shops are also in preparation. By then, the integration of online and offline duty-free consumption will further enhance the consumer shopping experience. As for whether Hailvcheng and JD.com have the possibility of in-depth cooperation in online stores and logistics, and finally realize the “mail delivery” of duty-free goods, there is still huge room for imagination.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF150)
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