原标题：公募基金争论白酒股：追求投资确定性，高估值可能导致市场表现平平！
概要
[Publicofferingfundsargueagainstliquorstocks:thepursuitofinvestmentcertaintyandhighvaluationmayleadtomediocremarketperformance!Atthebeginningofthenewyeartheliquorindexcontinueditsstrongmarketin2020andcontinuedtorisesharplyKweichowMoutai’ssharepriceexceeded2100yuanshowingahighandsoaringmarket(ChinaFundNews)
At the beginning of the new year, the Baijiu Index continued its strong market in 2020 and continued to rise.Kweichow MoutaiThe stock price broke through 2100 yuan, showing a high price soaring.
along withPublic offeringShigekura’s liquor stocks are rising higher and higher,fundBring goodPerformanceAt the same time, market divergence is getting bigger: some fund managers firmly hold the “core assets” of liquor based on the consideration of investment certainty; some fund managers pay more attention to the high valuation of liquor stocks, which may lead to mediocre market performance. Investment opportunities will be captured based on changes in industry valuation and competitive landscape.
Liquor stocks soared high
Public offerings pursue investment certainty
Continuing the market style of last year’s A-share market, at the beginning of 2021, liquor, agriculture, military industry, etc. will still become the pioneers and lead theShanghai IndexEasily cross the 3500 point mark. Only 3 trading days after the market opened this year, the liquor index rose by nearly 8%.Shuijingfang、Luzhou Laojiao、WuliangyeMany liquor stocks rose more than 10% during the same period, leading liquor stocksKweichow MoutaiThe stock price exceeded 2100 yuan, and continued to show hot market conditions.
A number of high-quality fund managers said that due to the strong certainty of performance growth, a good market competition pattern, and the industry’s booming upward cycle, liquor stocks still have high investment certainty.
YinhuaqualityConsumer fund manager Zhang Ping said that the certainty of sales of some high-end liquorsBrandThe market structure is very stable, and the certainty of performance is also very strong, making the trend in 2021 very certain.On the other hand, from the perspective of marginal improvement, the flexibility of liquor stocks exists in the first half of 2021. Whether it is EPS (earnings per share) or the price/performance ratio of valuation, liquor will beBig consumptionThe sector is more cost-effective, so she is relatively more optimistic about this type of more certain assets.
She analyzed that from the perspective of PEG (price-to-earnings ratio relative to earnings growth ratio), looking at the entire consumer goods sector, the investment price ratio of the liquor sector is still relatively high; in addition, from the perspective of EPS, many liquorsenterpriseproductHigh-end, which can be improvedpriceAnd so on, to resist the inflationary market that may come in 2021.
HongdeFund researchDirector Qin Yi also analyzed that the liquor sector is a very important sector in the consumer sector, because of itsbusinessThe excellent model has become an important direction for the allocation of a large amount of funds, and it will still have good investment value in the future; secondly, liquor belongs to the procyclical sector. In the case of a good economic recovery in 2021, the performance of liquor companies will still be more probable. ; Third, from the perspective of consumption upgrades, the market share and market concentration of high-end and sub-high-end liquor companies in the past have been continuously increasing. If the logic of structural market share increase is grasped, the liquor sector may still have good returns in the future.
In Qin Yi’s view, because liquor belongs to a relatively large sector, one can find large room for growth,brand operationstrong ability,the companyCompanies with a complete governance structure and refined channel control may have good investment returns when investing in these companies. This is also an important reason why institutions are vying to hold positions in liquor stocks.
A consumer fund manager in Beijing also said, “From the perspective of the industry’s prosperity, the prosperity of liquor stocks is still in the upward stage, and the competitive landscape of the liquor industry is also relatively good. From the perspective of the cycle of the next five years, liquor stocks are still investing more. Good’track’.”
High valuation may lead to mediocre market performance
Although the fundamentals are good and are in a high boom range, the high valuation of liquor stocks is also an indisputable fact. The public offering of “baotuan” holdings of liquor stocks has also been criticized by some market participants.
Data show that as of January 6, the liquor indexDynamic P/E RatioUp to 63.6 times, ranking the highest quintile in history. Investors said that the digestion of the industry’s high valuations will likely lead to a mediocre market performance of liquor stocks, and investors should lower their future earnings expectations for liquor stocks.
A high-quality fund manager in Beijing said that the problem with liquor stocks is their high valuations. The short-term valuation of A-shares is not the core contradiction. In the long-term, high valuations will lead to mediocre market performance. In the short term, industries with high prosperity may continue to rise. Such asset public offerings will not be lost, but will be adjusted accordingly.From the perspective of investment cost performance, when the valuation of a type of asset is excessively high, the cost performance of investment will also decrease. From the perspective of reverse investment, the company can deploy other industries with rising prosperity and valuations that are still low. , Keep the combinationboundary of safety。
The above-mentioned Beijing consumer fund manager also said that when the overall valuation of liquor stocks is too high, the upside will be limited, and it is necessary to reduce the income expectations of the sector in the future.However, he believes that liquor stocks may be the year to digest the valuation in 2021, but he will not sell liquor stocks and still regard this sector as the basic allocation of the fund.Position。
The 2020 three quarterly report shows thatKweichow Moutai、Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoWaiting for three liquor stocks to joinRaised fundsTop ten heavyweight stocks, 1442 funds hold Kweichow Moutai, 1094 funds holdWuliangye, Public offeringLuzhou Laojiao230 million shares, accounting for nearly 16% of the outstanding shares.
“The overall shareholding ratio of public equity funds in leading consumer stocks is relatively high, and they also have a strongPricingRight, I think this is a sign of the healthy operation of the market, and it is to allow professional institutions to price assets, in line with the guidance of the supervisory authority to “strengthen rational and mature medium- and long-term investment power”. From the perspective of the US capital market, pension funds also have a great impact on asset pricing. Such long-term funds implement the long-termism of investment, and it is easier to choose those’core assets’ whose fundamentals in the market can withstand the test. “The consumer fund manager said.
2020 yearNew fundOver 3 trillion yuan, from the perspective of new fund positions, some funds are still optimistic about the investment value of liquor stocks. However, from the perspective of investment structure, it will be more inclined to invest in high-end liquor, and will remain vigilant against changes in the dislocation competition pattern of liquor stocks in different price ranges and different regions.
Yinhua FundZhang Ping reminded that because sauce wine is more suitable for the high-end market under the spillover effect of individual leading companies, in certain price segments, the market share of Luzhou-flavor liquor and sauce-flavor liquor needs further observation; and for some regional liquor brands that have been listed , We must be alert to the future competition pattern of the industry and the internal differentiation of the liquor industry.
Qin Yi of Hongde Fund also analyzed that liquor is a unique sector in China, which itself contains the concept of culture. From a quantitative perspective, the ceiling of the liquor sector has already appeared, and the scale of the entire industry may shrink in the future. However, from the perspective of consumption upgrade, industry space may be opened up, market concentration may usher in a greater increase, and better growth in the future.
“In terms of investment, fund managers need to select leading companies with obvious advantages in the liquor industry, and strive to achieve returns that continue to exceed market growth for a long time in the future, and bring stable investment returns to the investment portfolio. “Qin Yi said.
(Source: China Fund News)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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