原标题：6天之内达到45亿美元，房地产公司在第一年就出现了融资井喷！ 房地产公司的融资规模去年达到了历史最高水平，今年的债务偿还规模可能突破万亿。 融资情况将如何？
概要
[Sixdaysof$45billioninrealestatefinancingblowoutinthefirstyear!ThefinancingscaleofrealestateenterpriseshitarecordhighlastyearWhatwillhappentothedebtrepaymentscaleortrillionsoffinancingthisyear?】Statisticsfromanumberofresearchinstitutionsshowthatthetotalfinancingof95typicalrealestatecompaniesin2020is1522080billionyuanaslightincreaseof01%year-on-year;thecumulativedomesticandforeignbondfinancingofrealestatecompaniesisabout11232billionyuanarecordhighbutThegrowthratehasnarrowedfortwoconsecutiveyears(SecuritiesTimesNetwork)
Although the financing environment of real estate companies experienced a change from loose to tight last year, the scale of financing still hit a record high.
Statistics from many research institutions show that the total financing of 95 typical real estate companies in 2020 will be 1.522.080 billion yuan.Year-on-yearA slight increase of 0.1%; real estate companies at home and abroadBondA total of approximately 1.213 trillion yuan in financingRMB, The scale hit a record high, but the growth rate has narrowed for two consecutive years.
Real estate financing continued to blowout at the beginning of the year.According to statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in the first six days of the year, real estate companies’ US dollar financing has exceeded US$4.5 billion, and most of themcostRefreshenterpriseThe lowest record in history.
The industry believes that the main reason for the current financing blowout is that real estate companies plan ahead and increase financing to avoid possible policy risks. It is estimated that the debt repayment scale of real estate enterprises may break the trillion mark in 2021, and the debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises will continue to rise. However, under the influence of the expansion of the new financing regulations, more real estate enterprises take the initiative to “reduce the burden” and the financing scale will maintain throughout the year Low. Small and medium-sized real estate companies may be the first to feel the tension of the bond market.
Last year, the financing scale of real estate enterprises hit a record high
Decrease in financing costs
Looking back at the financing situation of real estate companies last year, China Index Academy pointed out that in the first half of the year, affected by thecurrencyThe policy tools maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the financing of real estate enterprises has a “small spring”, such as the January seaexternal debtThe financing scale exceeds 120 billion yuan, in MarchcreditThe scale of bond issuance exceeded 100 billion yuan, the highest value of the year. In the second half of the year,real estateFinancial supervision has been continuously strengthened, new regulations on the “three red lines” have flowed out, and industry funds have shown a tight balance. In September and October, the scale of financing of credit bonds and overseas bonds of real estate enterprises dropped significantly.
According to the data monitored by the Tongce Research Institute in December last year, 40 typical listed real estate companies completed a total of 98.348 billion yuan in financing, which was a decrease of 9.86% from the previous month. Among them, the proportion of equity financing further increased.
For the whole year, according to incomplete statistics from the monitoring data of the Crane Research Center, the total financing of 95 typical real estate companies in 2020 is 1,522.080 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year.
Specifically,shellStatistics from the Institute show that in 2020, domestic and foreign bond financing of real estate enterprises will accumulate approximately RMB 1,213.2 billion, a record high, with a cumulative increase of 3% year-on-year, and a cumulative increase of 10% less than the same period in 2019. Since 2018, the scale of bond financing by real estate enterprises has slowed down for two consecutive years, and the effect of financial regulation has appeared. Among them, the scale of offshore bond financing was approximately 451.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. The scale of overseas bonds accounted for approximately 37%, a decrease of 10 percentage points from 2019, and the proportion was similar to that in 2018; the domestic bond market showed strong resilience and the scale of financing Approximately 761.3 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% year-on-year, and domestic bonds accounted for 63%.
Regarding the reason why the scale of domestic and foreign bond financing by real estate companies hit a record high last year,shellSenior Research InstituteAnalystPan HaoacceptThe Securities Times reporter stated in an interview that from January to August, theinterest rateThe low level and other factors have affected the scale of debt issuance by real estate companies to increase significantly. The “three red line policy” has caused the scale of debt issuance from September to December to decline year-on-year, but the scale of debt issuance still has a certain growth in the whole year.
From the perspective of financing costs,shellThe research institute pointed out that the domestic and foreign financinginterest rateCompared with the previous year, the average face value in Chinainterest rateThe lowest point since 2015.
As for the reason for the decrease in financing costs last year, the Crane Research Center believes that the main reason is that the domestic and overseas financing costs of real estate companies have “generally reduced” under a relatively loose monetary environment.In addition, due to historical foreign debtIssuance costHigher than domestic bonds, while the value of foreign bonds/domestic bonds during the year was 0.93, a decrease of 0.83 from 2019. The decline in the issuance of foreign bonds was also the main factor leading to the decline in overall financing costs.
Real estate financing continued to blowout at the beginning of this year. According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in the first six days of the year, real estate companies have raised more than US$4.5 billion in US dollar financing, and most of the costs have broken the lowest record in corporate history.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the current real estate financing blowout and the outbreak of overseas financing are mainly due to real estate companies taking precautions and increasing financing to avoid possible policy risks. In addition, in terms of overall policies, whether it is the “three red lines” or other policies, they have not yet been implemented. Enterprises are seizing the window period and increasing financing. The financing cost is also very low, which is conducive to the replacement of high-amount financing in the past.
This year’s debt repayment scale may break the trillion mark
The scale of financing may remain low
After financing expansion in the past few years, in recent years, real estate companies have ushered in a peak of debt repayment. The industry predicts that the scale of debt repayment in 2021 may break the trillion mark, and the pressure on real estate companies’ funds is not small.
According to statistics from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in 2021,real estateThe total bond repayment scale of the industry, including overseas bonds, will reach 10909 billion yuan, of which the scale of overseas bond repayment will be 408.3 billion yuan.the companyThe bond repayment scale is 374.4 billion yuan; in 2022,real estateThe scale of industry repayments will fall back to 785.6 billion yuan; in 2023, this scale will remain roughly at 800 billion yuan.
Statistics from the Shell Research Institute also show that the debt repayment scale of real estate companies in 2020 is about 915.4 billion, an increase of 28.7% year-on-year; the debt maturing in 2021 (excluding ultra-short-term bonds to be issued in 2021) is expected to reach 1,244.8 billion. A year-on-year increase of 36%, a historic breakthrough in the trillion mark, the pressure on real estate companies to repay debt continues to rise.
It is worth noting that after the new “three red lines” financing regulations last year, newAdditional issuanceThe debt scale cannot cover the current debt maturity scale. The Shell Research Institute pointed out that after the Securities Regulatory Commission imposed restrictions on the use of financing for real estate companies in the second half of 2016, the difference between the scale of debt issued by real estate companies and the scale of maturing debt remained relatively stable between 2017 and 2018, and the difference between the two in 2019 It has been reduced, and the gap between the two in the first October of 2020 has further narrowed. The monthly data shows that after the new financing regulations for real estate companies, the scale of new bond issuances from September to October cannot cover the scale of debt maturing in the current period. The impact of the new financing regulations on the bond financing end of real estate companies has gradually emerged. The growth rate of bond issuance will be curbed in the short term.
On August 20 last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Bank held a symposium on key real estate companies. After the meeting, the “three red lines” were widely spread on the Internet, and the degree of strict financial supervision on real estate companiesPull upTo new heights. On December 31, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission adjusted real estatebankLoan ratio of industrial financial institutions,bankIndustrial financial institutions have established a real estate loan concentration management system, extended the regulatory upgrade to the end of the year, and released the determination of financial supervision to 2021.
Looking forward to the future, Shell Research Institute believes that under the background of risk prevention, it is expected that the difficulty of real estate bond financing will continue to escalate. In 2021, under the influence of the expansion of applicable financing regulations, more real estate companies will actively “reduce the burden” and raise funds throughout the year. The scale will remain low. Small and medium-sized real estate companies may be the first to feel the tension of the bond market.
The Crane Research Center also believes that, on the one hand, real estate companies’ financial leverage reduction will be the main theme, and future financing will be mainlyborrowThe growth of financing may decline, and enterprises will increase the use of operating leverage and cooperation leverage to achieve stable growth in scale.On the other hand, the financing channels of real estate enterprises may be further restricted. Some financing methods such as real equity bonds may be hit.spin offIts subsidiaries went public to achieve asset growth,improveDebt indicators.In addition, the “three red lines” supervision will also force real estate companies to improve themselvesproductReduce reliance on financing, increase project decentralization, and speed up the development cycle. The development of real estate companies will also diverge. The development of highly leveraged real estate companies will be limited, and the future growth rate will slow down. Some housing companies with excellent financial capabilities will get more opportunities and the industry will face a new round of reshuffle. .
(Source: Securities Times Net)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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