概要
[Fundmanagersarguethatliquorstocksare”intoxicating”ThepursuitofcertaintyandhighvaluationsmayleadtomediocremarketperformanceAtthebeginningofthenewyeartheliquorindexcontinuedtorisestronglyin2020AsliquorstocksrisehigherandhighermarketdivergenceisalsoincreasingSomefundmanagersfirmlyholdliquor”coreassets”basedoninvestmentcertaintyconsiderations;somefundmanagersaremoreconcernedthatthehighvaluationofliquorstocksmayleadtomarketperformanceYumediocreandwillcaptureinvestmentopportunitiesbasedonchangesinindustryvaluationandcompetitivelandscape(SecuritiesTimes)
At the beginning of the new year, the liquor index continued to rise strongly in 2020.As liquor stocks rise higher and higher, market divergence is also increasing. SomefundBased on the consideration of investment certainty, managers firmly hold the “core assets” of baijiu; some fund managers are more concerned that the high valuation of baijiu stocks may lead to mediocre market performance, and will capture investment opportunities based on changes in industry valuation and competitive landscape.
Public offeringFunds pursue investment certainty
Liquor stocks rose sharply
Continuing the market style of last year, at the beginning of 2021, liquor, agriculture, military industry, etc. will still become the pioneers and lead theShanghai IndexCross the 3500 point mark. Only 3 trading days after the market opened this year, the liquor index rose by nearly 8%.Kweichow MoutaiThe stock price exceeded 2100 yuan,Shuijingfang、Luzhou Laojiao、WuliangyeMany liquor stocks rose more than 10%.
A number of high-performance fund managers stated that due toPerformanceThe certainty of growth is strong, the market competition pattern is good, and the industry is in a boom cycle, liquor stocks still have high investment certainty.
YinhuaqualityConsumer fund manager Zhang Ping said that the certainty of sales of some high-end liquorsBrandThe market structure is very stable, and the certainty of performance is also very high.On the other hand, from the perspective of marginal improvement, the flexibility of liquor stocks exists in the first half of 2021. Whether it is earnings per share (EPS) or the price-performance ratio of valuation, liquor will beBig consumptionThe sector is more cost-effective, so she is relatively more optimistic about such certain assets.
She analyzed that from the perspective of price-earnings ratio relative to earnings growth ratio (PEG), looking at the entire consumer goods sector, the investment price ratio of the liquor sector is still relatively high; in addition, from the perspective of EPS, many liquorsenterpriseproductHigh-end, which can be improvedpriceEtc., to withstand the inflation that may come in 2021.
HongdeFund researchDirector Qin Yi pointed out that liquor is a very important sector in the consumer sector, because of itsbusinessThe excellent model has become an important direction for the allocation of a large amount of funds, and it will still have good investment value in the future; secondly, liquor belongs to the procyclical sector. In the case of a good economic recovery in 2021, the performance of liquor companies will still be more probable. ; Third, from the perspective of consumption upgrades, the market share and market concentration of high-end and sub-high-end liquor companies in the past have been continuously increasing. If the logic of structural market share increase is grasped, the liquor sector may still have good returns in the future.
In Qin Yi’s view, because liquor belongs to a relatively large sector, one can find large room for growth,brand operationstrong ability,the companyCompanies with a complete governance structure and refined channel control may have good investment returns when investing in these companies. This is also an important reason why institutions are vying to hold positions in liquor stocks.
A Beijing fund manager also said, “From the perspective of the industry’s prosperity, the prosperity of liquor stocks is still in the upward stage, and the competitive landscape of the liquor industry is also relatively good. From the perspective of the cycle of the next five years, liquor stocks are still investing better. ‘Track’.”
High valuation or mediocre market performance
Although the fundamentals are good and are in a high boom range, the high valuation of liquor stocks is also an indisputable fact.Raised funds“Baotuan” holdings of liquor stocks have also been criticized by some market participants.
Data show that as of January 6, the liquor indexDynamic P/E RatioUp to 63.6 times, ranking the highest quintile in history. Investors said that the digestion of the industry’s high valuation may lead to a mediocre market performance of liquor stocks, and investors should lower their future earnings expectations for liquor stocks.
A high-quality fund manager in Beijing said that the problem with liquor stocks is their high valuations. In the short term, valuation is not the core contradiction. In the long run, high valuation will lead to mediocre stock price performance. In the short term, industries with high prosperity may continue to rise. Such asset public funds will not be thrown away, but they will make adaptive adjustments.From the perspective of investment cost performance, when the valuation of a type of asset is excessively high, the cost performance of investment will also decrease. From the perspective of reverse investment, the company will deploy other industries with rising prosperity and low valuations in better cost performance sectors. Keep the combinationboundary of safety。
The above-mentioned Beijing fund manager also said that when the overall valuation of liquor stocks is too high, the upside will be limited, and it is necessary to reduce the income expectations of the sector in the future.However, he believes that liquor stocks may be the year to digest the valuation in 2021, but he will not sell liquor stocks and still regard this sector as the basic allocation of the fund.Position。
The 2020 three quarterly report shows thatKweichow Moutai、Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoWait for 3 liquor stocks to be among the top ten stocks of public funds, 1442 fund holdingsKweichow Moutai, Held by 1094 fundsWuliangye, Public fund holdingsLuzhou Laojiao230 million shares, accounting for nearly 16% of the outstanding shares.
“The overall shareholding ratio of public equity funds in leading consumer stocks is relatively high, and they also have a strongPricingRight, this is a sign of the healthy operation of the market, allowing professional institutions to price assets, in line with the guidance of the regulatory authorities to “strengthen rational and mature medium- and long-term investment forces”. From the perspective of the US capital market, pension funds also have a great influence on asset pricing. Such long-term funds implement investment long-termism, and it is easier to choose’core assets’ whose fundamentals can withstand the test. “The fund manager said.
2020New fundOver 3 trillion yuan, from the perspective of new fund positions, some funds are still optimistic about the investment value of liquor stocks.But from the perspective of investment structure, it will be more inclined to invest in high-end liquor, targeting different price ranges and different regions.PositioningLiquor stocks will remain vigilant when the dislocation competition pattern changes.
Zhang Ping reminded that because Maoxiang wine is more suitable for the high-end market due to the spillover effect of individual leading companies, in certain price segments, the market share of Luzhou-flavor liquor and Maotai-flavor liquor needs further observation; and for some regional liquors that have been on the market Brands must be alert to the future competition pattern of the industry and the internal differentiation of the liquor industry.
Qin Yi also pointed out that baijiu is a unique sector of China, which itself contains cultural concepts. From a quantitative perspective, the ceiling of the liquor sector has already appeared, and the scale of the entire industry may shrink in the future. However, from the perspective of consumption upgrade, industry space may be opened up, and market concentration may usher in a greater increase.
“In terms of investment, fund managers need to select leading companies with obvious advantages in the liquor industry, and strive for these companies to obtain returns that continue to surpass the market for a long time in the future, and bring stable investment returns to the investment portfolio.” Yi said.
(Source: Securities Times)
(Editor in charge: DF520)
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