原标题：一度飙升1000点！ 年初人民币升值。 A股连续两天“走红”的信号是什么？中国资产再次被抢，这些公司关注
概要
[Atonepointitskyrocketedby1000points!Renminbi”runaway”atthebeginningoftheyearWhat’sthesignalthatAsharesare”popular”fortwodays?】AftertheRMBexchangerateagainsttheUSdollarrosebymorethan700pointsonthefirsttradingdayoftheopeningyeartheRMBexchangeraterosebymorethan300pointsinearlytradingonJanuary5andthenitcorrectedOnshoreRMBagainsttheUSdollarat16:30onJanuary5Itclosedat64640basicallythesameastheprevioustradingdayTheoffshorerenminbiexchangeratenarrowedtomorethan60basispointstoaround644Theoffshoreexchangerateroseto641(BrokerChina)
It rose by more than a thousand points in just two days,RMBThe exchange rate is on fire again.
After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose by more than 700 points on the first trading day of the opening year, January 5RMB exchange rateIn early trading, it rose by more than 300 points and then corrected. Onshore RMB/USD closed at 6.4640 at 16:30 on January 5, basically the same as the previous trading day, and the offshore RMB exchange rate narrowed to more than 60 basis points. Around 6.44, the offshore exchange rate had previously risen to 6.41.
A-shares were even more popular for two days. On January 4, A-shares ushered in a good start.The Shanghai Composite IndexUp 0.86%;Shenzhen Component IndexIncreased by 2.47%; the ChiNext board rose by 2.75%. On January 5, A shares broke out again across the board, individual stocks fell more and rose less, more than 100 shares rose more than 9%, as of the close,Shanghai IndexRose 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.16%,Growth Enterprise Market IndexRose 0.65%.
SpotpriceThe strengthening of renminbi also drove the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar to 6.4760 on January 5, a new high since June 21, 2018. However, it is worth noting that although the central parity of the RMB rose by 648 points that day, it was still 132 points behind the closing price of the RMB against the US dollar at 16:30 (6.4628) on January 4. Some analysts believe that today’s mid-term The exchange rate was significantly higher than the closing price of the previous day, which signaled that the central bank did not want the exchange rate to continue to appreciate significantly, and hoped that the exchange rate would fluctuate steadily.
Many analysts interviewed believe that since last year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen at a rate comparable to the decline in the US dollar index. Considering that the US dollar is expected to remain weak in the future, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will continue to strengthen.This changing trend will testExporttypeenterpriseExchange rate risk control ability, it is recommended to change the order settlement currency type, hedgeHedgeLock the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in other ways. At the same time, the future of RMB exchange rate strengthening will not be a one-way straight upward process, but will steadily strengthen in two-way fluctuations. Enterprises also need to pay attention to seizing the opportunity to settle foreign exchange at rallies.
What happened to the RMB exchange rate when it rose by more than a thousand points only on the second day of the year?
China’s financial assets have ushered in a “good start” in the new year, not only the A-shares are booming, but the RMB exchange rate is no exception.
After the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 770 points on the first trading day of the opening year, on January 5, the RMB exchange rate continued its prosperous trend.Although today’s RMB exchange rate has experiencedRise and fall, But the current offshore exchange rate is still rising to around 6.44.
The strength of the RMB exchange rate at the beginning of the year is somewhat surprising. The market can’t help but wonder, what is driving the RMB exchange rate in the past two days so strong?
Bank of China SecuritiesGlobal Chief Economist Guan TaoBrokerageChinese reporters said that the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the second half of last year was mainly affected by the resonance of multiple favorable factors. Since the beginning of this year, these favorable factors have still existed, causing the RMB exchange rate to inertially rise.
It is worth noting that just as the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose sharply on January 4, the US dollar index also fell below 89.5 that day, continuing to hit its lowest level since April 2018. Therefore, there are also views that the sharp rise in the RMB exchange rate yesterday was mainly affected by the weakness of the US dollar index.
but,Bank of ChinaResearcher Wang Youxin of the Research Institute told the brokerage China reporter that the rapid rise in the RMB exchange rate at the beginning of the year was driven more by domestic factors and market sentiment, rather than the correction of the external dollar index. Specifically, on January 4, the RMB spot exchange rate appreciated by 1.2% compared to the previous trading day, while the US dollar index fell only slightly by 0.09% on that day. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar index cannot explain the rapid increase in the RMB exchange rate in the beginning of 2021.
For the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, Wang Youxin believes that the main reasons are:
One is the concentrated release of the renminbi’s bullish sentiment. On January 4, the Central Bank, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing Cross-border RMB Policies to Support Stabilizing Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment” to further broaden the scope of cross-border RMB use and optimize cross-border RMB investment and financing And the flow management under the capital account to simplify the cross-border RMB settlement process and operational convenience. The market generally believes that this move is conducive to attracting cross-border capital inflows, further intensifying the market’s bullish sentiment towards the renminbi and promoting the rapid appreciation of the renminbi.
Second, China has recently signed RCEP, China-EU Investment Agreement and other multilateral frameworks with its major trading partners, which has significantly improved China’s external development environment, facilitated the promotion of cross-border trade and investment development, and further boosted the market’s contribution to the stable development of China’s economy and the appreciation of the renminbi. Confidence.
Third, from the perspective of global epidemic prevention and control, the recent epidemics in developed economies such as Europe and the United States have continued to repeat, and the economic recovery process has been greatly delayed. China’s economy will continue to thrive in 2021, supporting market confidence in the yuan.
How does the dollar index affect the future trend of the RMB exchange rate?
Although the strength of the RMB exchange rate in the first two days of the year has little to do with the weakness of the U.S. dollar index, judging from the situation last year, the increase in the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was comparable to the decrease in the U.S. dollar index. The dominant force of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar.
“Last year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 6.9%, and the US dollar index fell 6.7% over the same period. The two are roughly the same. Therefore, if the US dollar index continues to weaken in the future, it may also push the RMB exchange rate stronger.” Guan Tao said.
It is worth noting that on December 31, 2020,China Foreign Exchange Trading CenterIssued “About Adjusting CFETSRMB exchange rate indexcurrencyBasket weightedannouncement》, will use the 2019 trade data as the weight to re-adjust the currency basket weight of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index. This adjustment of the currency basket weight is the third adjustment since 2017. The adjustment of the currency weight of CFETS is basically the same as the adjustment of the weight of trade volume. The weight of the euro, Australian dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and Saudi riyal has increased, while the weight of the US dollar, South Korean won, and Japanese yen has decreased, thus strengthening the currency basket and Trade structure matching degree, the new version of the index will take effect from January 1, 2021.
An interesting change is that although the weight of the US dollar in the currency basket of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has fallen, in fact, the impact of the fluctuation of the US dollar index on the central parity of the RMB has increased.
Chief Macro of Huachuang SecuritiesAnalystZhang Yu told reporters from brokerage China that under the new CFETS coefficient, the weight of the euro and the British pound will increase, but the exchange rate trends of the euro and the pound are also affected by the dollar index, which indirectly increases the influence of the dollar index on the central parity of the renminbi.
“Assuming that the US dollar index actively appreciates by 1%, that is, all currencies in the US dollar index basket appreciate by 1% simultaneously. Under the new CFETS coefficient, the depreciation pressure of the RMB central parity is 0.361%, while under the old CFETS coefficient, the RMB central The depreciation pressure of the price is 0.355% depreciation. At the same time, in the scope of the stress test, the fluctuation of the US dollar index under the new coefficient has led to the expansion of the fluctuation range of the central parity of the RMB.
Regarding the prospect of the dollar index, the market generally believes that the dollar has entered a bearish weak cycle. Wang Youxin said that for the U.S. dollar, considering the repeated worsening of the epidemic situation in the United States, the intermittent economic recovery process, the unconventional fiscal monetization cycle, and the global political and economic pattern of “rising eastward and declining west”, it is clear that it has entered a decline. cycle. In the long run, the downward trend of the U.S. dollar is in line with the downward trend in the global share of the U.S. economy, trade, and investment.
“At present, there has been a trend of’de-dollarization’ in the world, and the epidemic has accelerated this trend. Since the beginning of 2020, the US dollar has beenforeign exchange reservesThe share of usage in fields such as, global payments has been declining, and major US debt holders such as Japan and China have continued to sell US debt. Therefore, in the next 3-5 years, the U.S. dollar index may return to the level of around 2014, completing this round of ups and downs. “Wang Youxin said.
However, the course of the dollar’s weakness is not straight down.Wang Youxin believes that this process is a gradual adjustment process. At present, the foundation for the international use of the U.S. dollar is still in place.Bond, Loans, foreign exchange transactions and other fields still occupy a dominant position, the short-term basis will not be completely reversed, the US dollar may also have a phased correction in the long-term decline.
Guan Tao also reminded that attention needs to be paid to the impact of the economic recovery speed of major economies on exchange rates after the epidemic is brought under control. Before the outbreak, the economic fundamentals of the United States were better than those of major economies such as Europe and Japan. The current epidemic is recurring overseas. Some European countries have adopted partial blockade measures to prevent and control the epidemic, which will drag down the economic recovery in Europe. There are also market opinions that predict that the European economy will experience a second recession. If so, it does not rule out the possibility that Europe will further introduce stimulus easing policies. How this will affect future exchange rate trends is still full of uncertainty.
export businessDiversification of settlement currencies is important
For export-oriented enterprises, as the future exchange rate volatility increases, the requirements for exchange rate risk control will undoubtedly be further enhanced.
“In fact, companies have many ways to reduce and avoid the risks brought by exchange rate fluctuations.” Guan Tao said that in addition to actively hedging exchange rate risks through forward exchange settlement and option transactions, companies can also choose RMB-denominated settlement or appropriate Foreign currency denominated settlement, instead of relying too much on USD settlement.
This round of appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar mainly reflects the impact of the weakening of the US dollar. Although the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has increased by nearly 10% from June to December, the RMB exchange rate index of the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center only appreciated 2.7% during the same period.From the territorybankLooking at the middle price of 24 RMB foreign currency transactions in the inter-market, the RMB exchanged against the Euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc,Danish KroneSix foreign currencies, including the Swedish Krona and Swedish Krona, still fell. Among them, the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona accounted for nearly two-thirds of the six weighted currencies of the US dollar index. Last year, the RMB exchange rate against these three currencies fell by 2.6%, 2.7% and 6.3% respectively.
Guan Tao said that the diversification of cross-foreign currency denominated and settlement currencies is very important. Because even if the dollar index is expected to continue to fall this year, it will fall against the six major currencies including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. As long as the increase in the exchange rate of these currencies against the U.S. dollar is greater than that of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, choosing this currency for the valuation and settlement of foreign trade exports can also avoid the risks caused by the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar. Looking at the situation last year, companies have half the success probability of choosing the right settlement currency.
(Source: Brokerage China)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
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