原标题：意外！ “猪很强”又来了，短期价格上涨显示出扩张的迹象。 现在是什么状况？ 进口冷冻肉面临消费问题，到2021年它会继续增长吗？
概要
[“Pigisstrong”iscomingagainforshort-termpriceincreasesshowingsignsofexpansion!Importedfrozenmeatfacesconsumptionproblemsandcontinuestorisein2021?AttheendofthenewyearIwentaroundthevegetablemarketandfoundthattheretailpriceofporkwasrisingStatisticsshowthatthepriceofporkhasrisenforamonthThepriceoflivepigshasrisenfromanaveragepriceof29yuan/kgattheendofNovember2020to35yuan/kgtodayanincreaseof6yuan/kgwhichisabitunexpected(BrokerChina)
At the end of the year again, I’m shopping aroundmarketFound that pork retailpriceIt is rising.
Statistics show that the price of pork has risen for a month. The price of live pigs has risen from an average price of 29 yuan/kg at the end of November 2020 to 35 yuan/kg today, an increase of 6 yuan/kg, which is a bit unexpected.
Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently released information showing that by the end of November 2020, the national pig stocks and reproductive sow stocks have recovered to more than 90% of the normal level. On the one hand, it is disclosed that pig farming has returned to the annual level of 90%. On the other hand, the price of pigs and meat has been rising. What is going on?
Multiple breedingenterpriseExperts said that the live pig market is stillSeller’s market, No matter if it recovers to 80% or 90%, it is not fully recovered after all. At the same time, with the development of the epidemic, imported frozen meat is facing consumption problems. Consumers have switched to buying relatively assured fresh meat, which has widened the domestic pork supply gap and has become an important reason for the recent rise in live pig prices.
Although the short-term price may still rise further, in the long-term, experts generally believe that pork prices are still expected to fall further. By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the live pig market will face an important observation window.On the premise of no major epidemics and major policy changes, starting in the second half of 2021Capacity releaseOr accelerate, pig prices may show an overall downward trend, and it is estimated that by September 2021, the national live pig price may be 21.5-22.5 yuan/kg.
Imported frozen meat faces consumption problems, and the price of live pigs shows signs of further expansion
On December 31, 2020, the pig price system data monitoring of China Pig Network showed that the national average price of live pigs was 35.67 yuan/kg, which was an increase of 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous day.
This is the third time in 2020 that the price of pigs is approaching a high point. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in February 2020, the price of live pigs reached the highest point, breaking through the level of 38 yuan/kg and then falling; in July 2020, the price of live pigs was approaching 38 yuan/kg again. In December 2020, the price of live pigs is approaching 38 yuan/kg again.
In 2020, the price of live pigs will continue to rise.supplyTightness and capacity gaps have become the focus of the industry. There was a shortage of domestic live pigs, and my country imported a large amount of foreign frozen meat to make up for domestic demand. However, since November 2020, more than a dozen provinces, cities and regions across the country have concentrated on the outbreak of imported frozen meat that has tested positive for the new crown virus. There are doubts and concerns about safety, the consumption of frozen meat has been greatly reduced, and the purchase of relatively safe fresh meat has further widened the domestic pork supply gap, which has become an important reason for the increase in live pig prices.
In November 2020, “Cold chainThe “Guidelines for the Prevention, Control and Disinfection of New Coronavirus in Food Production and Operation” were released. Subsequently, the detection of frozen products has been strengthened in various places, and the number of positive test results has increased significantly. December 1, 2020Market SupervisionThe General Administration held to strengthen the traceability management of imported cold chain foodjobsTV phonemeeting, Pointed out that “strictly import cold chain food fromPortNo inspection and quarantine certificate, no nucleic acid test report, no disinfection certificate, and no traceability information shall be allowed to go on the market for prevention and control throughout the entire process of production, circulation, and sales in the country. “
The continuous exposure of imported frozen meat with positive new coronavirus nucleic acid tests has also affected residents’ acceptance of frozen food consumption. For a long time in the past, imported frozen meat continued to ease the gap in domestic supply and demand. Statistics show that in terms of imports, as of November 2020, domestic imports of pork are more than 4 million tons, and the importing countries are mainly from the European Union, South America, the United States and other places. The import volume to Hong Kong in December is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and the annual pork import volume is between 4.2 and 4.3 million tons.
Obviously, when the peak demand season for traditional holidays such as New Year’s Day comes, and the import of frozen meat is facing difficulties, the market gap will be significantly enlarged in the short term.
The first quarter of 2021 has become a window period for pig prices, and there is still greater uncertainty in the second half of the year
As the “Second Brothers” become more valuable day by day, listed companies in the pig breeding industry are making a lot of money and are busy expanding their production capacity and expanding their “pockets.” December 30, 2020Tiankang BiologicalDisclosure of the non-public issuance plan, and it is planned to raise funds not exceeding 2.1 billion yuan for piglet breeding, pig fattening and replenishment.
Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, recently publicly stated: “It is expected that the pig production capacity will be fully restored to normal in the first half of 2021. According to the six-month fattening cycle, in the second half of 2021, the slaughter of pigs may reach the level of a normal year. “Generally, it takes 4 months for sows from pregnancy to piglet birth. After 1 month, the piglet weighs 7 kg and is released for fattening.ProductIt takes 5 months for pigs to be released, and the status of commercial pigs for the next 10 months can be judged from the status of breeding sows. According to the judgment of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in November 2020 that the stock of reproductive sows has recovered to more than 90% of the normal level, the slaughter of pigs in the second half of 2021 may be close to the normal level.
The expansion of production capacity has increased the supply of live pigs, but it has also given the outside world more anticipation of the decline in live pig prices.new HopeLiuhe Co., Ltd.the companyGuangdong AgricultureindustryfundChairman, Guangdong Innovation CenterGeneral managerLi Weifeng said that there will be no major epidemic in the future, and perhaps our generation may not be able to see a pig price of more than 20 yuan. Over the past year or so, the resumption of pig production in Guangdong and other places has been very fast. Compared with the sky-high prices in 2020, the price of live pigs will enter a downward channel in 2021, and low prices are likely to occur in 2022. When the price of pigs drops, many real estate and other industries that invest in pig farms may leave the farm halfway. By 2022, it is not ruled out that some people will sell pig farms at half price.
Tang Ren ShenChairman Tao Yishan also publicly stated that according to incomplete statistics, the scale of the pig raising projects under construction or to be built by major pig raising companies in China will reach 2 billion, while the consumption of pork in China is only 650 million. The future pig industry Will appearOvercapacity, The price of pork will also fall to 8-10 yuan/kg.
However, relative to the above-mentioned long-term forecasts, Xu Chunyu, vice chairman of CP Group Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Food Enterprise (China), will focus on the end of the first quarter of 2021. “Whether the price of live pigs can hold 25 yuan/kg at the end of the first quarter is a key window.” Xu Chunyu believes that the epidemic will have a greater impact on market supply and demand. If the price cannot hold 25 yuan/kg by then, the price is estimated to be all the way. Decline, and if held, prices will be relatively firm throughout the year.
Pan Xiaocheng, Purchasing Director of Henan Tiankang Hongzhan, said that in the second half of 2021, market uncertainties are still large. One is whether the import volume of frozen meat is further increased, and the other is the stock of sows and pigs capable of breeding. It is expected that in the second half of next year, the stock of breeding sows and pigs will basically return to the normal level, and the price is expected to remain at 19-23 yuan/kg.
Zhang Lili, a researcher in the pig industry of Zhuo Chuang Information, said that under the premise of no major epidemics and major policy changes, pig prices may show an overall downward trend in 2021, and production capacity may be released or accelerated in the second half of the year, although the end of September 2021 coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival There is a possibility of a boost and a small increase in the market, but it is generally estimated that the national average price of pigs in September 2021 may be 21.5-22.5 yuan/kg.
The 10th round of price increases in the feed industry, pig breedingcostWill be further improved in 2021
Now raise pigsprofithow is the situation? According to the latest statistics of Zhuo Chuang Information, in December 2020, driven by the continuous increase of pig prices, the feed ratio of pigs has shown a continuous upward trend, and once again broke the “11” mark, the expected profitability of the breeding unit will rebound to 1168 yuan/head. In January 2021, the supply of live pigs may increase slightly, but with the support of consumption, the price of pigs is unlikely to fall significantly. It is expected that the profitability of breeding will remain high and fluctuate.
Although the profit of breeding is still high, the cost of breeding has been rising. Recently,new Hope, Cargill, Anyou, Twins, Zhengbang, Yangxiang and other companies have successively announced price increases. In 2020, the 10th round of price increases in the feed industry will hit.
Pan Xiaocheng believes that fromFixed costFrom a perspective, the overall breeding cost is also rising. Among them, the new amortization cost of capacity expansion, the increase of salary expenses, the investment in anti-virus equipment, and the expenditure for washing consumption are all higher than in the past few years, and they must be accounted for in the breeding cost.
Xu Chunyu predicts that the profitability of the pig breeding industry in 2021 will be lower than that in 2020. On the one hand, the price of live pigs will drop overall, and on the other hand, the cost will continue to rise. Among them, the complete cost of breeding for self-breeding and self-raising has increased by about 3 to 5 yuan/kg than before the disease; the complete cost of breeding for fattening of purchased piglets has continued to rise with the increase in piglet prices, and the degree of change is much greater than that of self-raising and self-raising groups. The proportion of piglet costs in 2020 will be more than 50%, much higher than the 30% before the disease. In addition, the prices of corn and soybean meal have been at high points in recent years. It is expected that prices will remain relatively high in 2021, and feed costs will also rise in 2021. Together with the increase in other expenditures, it is expected that breeding costs will further increase in 2021.
(Article Source:BrokerageChina)
(Editor in charge: DF512)
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