太热了！ 飙升700亿的创业板可以生出8000亿的巨人？ 中金公司：高达40％！ _东方财富网

原标题：太热了！ 飙升700亿的创业板会诞生8000亿的巨人？ 中金公司：高达40％！

概要

[Toohot!Soaring70billionGEMtogivebirthto800billiongiants?CICC:Upto40%!】OnDecember30thelithiumbatteryleaderNingdeTimes(300750SZ)opened4%higherandthenthestockpriceroseallthewaywiththehighestintradaygainbreaking10%Asofthemorning’scloseitrose994%to3386yuansettinganewhighforitssharepricewithatotalmarketvalueof7888billionyuanSincethebeginningoftheyearCATLhasgainedover218%(Ecompanyofficialmicro)

　　Ningde eraIt plans to invest in the construction of three lithium battery production projects, stimulating the stock price to rise by more than 10%.

The new energy vehicle sector, which experienced a decline yesterday, also returned to its upward trend.

　　Ningde eraAccelerate production expansion

December 30th, lithium battery leaderNingde era(300750.SZ) opened 4% higher, and then the stock price went higher all the way, with the highest intraday gain breaking 10%.As of the morning’s close, it rose 9.94% to 338.6 yuan, setting a new stock price.Market valueUp to 788.8 billion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, CATL has gained over 218%.

At the same time, the new energy vehicle sector also swept yesterday’s gloom. The new energy vehicle index rose 3.76%; in terms of individual stocks,Leading Intelligence、Yahua GroupAmong the top gainers, only 15 stocks rose more than 5%.

The rise of Ningde erainvestmentThe extended message is raised. On December 29, CATL releasedannouncementSaid that it will invest in the construction of Jiangsu Liyang and Ningde Fuding production bases, and the expansion of Sichuan Yibin production base projects,Total investmentNo more than 39 billion yuan.

Specifically, in Fujian Province, the total investment in the Fuding production base of lithium-ion batteries does not exceed 17 billion yuan. In Jiangsu Province, the total investment of Jiangsu Times Power and Energy Storage Lithium Battery R&D and Production Project (Phase IV) does not exceed 12 billion yuan. In addition, the investment in the expansion of the Yibin Power Battery Manufacturing Base in Sichuan Province will not exceed 10 billion yuan.

The first phase of the Fuding and Yibin projects will not exceed 26 months from the start of construction, and the second phase of the project is planned to start within two years after the first phase of construction; the Liyang project will not exceed 24 months from the start of construction.

The investment subject of the above project is Ningde era orWholly-owned subsidiary, Of which the Liyang project was developed by Jiangsu Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.the companyImplementation, Yibin project is implemented by Sichuan Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

Ningde Times stated that the company’s investment in thestrategyThe development plan will further improve the company’s production capacity layout to meet the company’s future business development andmarketThe need for expansion is of great significance to promoting the company’s long-term stable development.The announcement especially emphasized the importance of the Yibin project, saying that Sichuan is a western automobileindustryAn important base in the automotive sector, it has a broad consumer market, a solid industrial foundation and strong technological innovation capabilities.

　　CATL is a power battery system provider, focusing on the research and development, production and sales of power battery systems and energy storage systems for new energy vehicles. According to the 2019 annual report, power battery systems accounted for 84.27% of the main business of CATL, and lithium battery materials accounted for 9.4%.

　　CICC raises target price, many institutions are optimistic about the market outlook

In the morning of December 30,CICCSignificantly raise the target price of the Ningde era.CICCSaid that CATL plans to invest no more than 39 billion yuan to build lithium battery capacity, and it is estimated that the total new capacity will be about 120-150GWH in the next 2-4 years.Taking into account the short-term industry boom, the mid- and long-term expectations are comprehensively improved, and the target price of the Ningde era is raised to 450 yuanRMB。

This target price is more than 46% higher than the closing price of CATL. As of the close of December 29, Ningde Times closed at 308 yuan.

　　CICCAnalystThe report pointed out that CATL’s cumulative announcement in 2020 will not exceed 73 billion yuan in capacity construction, which exceeds the total historical investment. Under the further optimistic expectations of the policy system for the overall acceleration of production capacity, it is expected that the global power battery installed demand in 2025 may be Reach over 1300GWh.

　　CICCThat high-qualitysupplyRelatively scarce, CATL has the ability to steadily match the needs of global top-tier car companies, and is expected to maintain its position as a global leader of 25%-30% in the medium to long term. In addition,CICCAlso raised the Ningde era for this and next year respectivelyprofitThe forecast is 4% and 10%, to 5.47 billion yuan and 8.03 billion yuan.

As a leader in lithium batteries, CATL has benefited from the recent increase in sales of new energy vehicles.Guosen SecuritiesIn a few daysResearch reportChina proposed that since December, CATL’s stock price has risen by more than 25%. This round of stock price rise reflects the market’s optimism that the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds expectations.

From the perspective of the domestic market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 200,000 in November, an increase of 24% from the previous month.Guosen SecuritiesIt is estimated that the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles in 2025 is 20%, and the corresponding sales volume is about 5 million. The domestic demand for power batteries is expected to reach 357GWh, with a compound growth rate of 38.5% in 2020-2025. Due to the favorable margin of subsidy policies in overseas markets, the penetration rate of electric vehicles has also maintained a rapid upward trend.

Look at the battery installed capacity in detail, according to the power batteryIndustry AllianceAccording to the data, the three battery factories with the largest share of the passenger car market are Ningde Times,BYDAnd LG Chem, accounting for 42.2%, 15.6%, 13.3% of themarket share; The top three battery plants in the commercial vehicle market are Ningde Times,BYDwithGuoxuan Hi-Tech, The market share is 62.1%, 14.8%, 8.9%.

　　Huatai SecuritiesBased on this analysis, the installed capacity of CATL increased by 66.24% month-on-month in November.supplierThe choice tends to be diversified, and the Ningde era has more extensive supply. Most of the automakers have been imported and the main supplier has been assumed, and the leading position has been stable.

However, with the car batterysupplier optionTrending towards diversification, some second-tier battery factories have obtained breakthrough opportunities. For example, LG’s installed capacity increased by 698% month-on-month, rising to third place. This has undoubtedly added pressure to the leader of the Ningde era, and may be the reason why the Ningde era has accelerated production expansion.

　　Watch out for the collapse of institutions

It is worth noting that the new energy vehicle sector, which has soared in the early stage, has recently encountered a stampede, and the organization group seems to be disintegrating.

On December 29, the new energy vehicle index plummeted 4.13%, the largest single-day drop since the beginning of September. Among the 56 stocks involved in the New Energy Automobile Index, 51 stocks fell, and CATL fell 2.77%.

　　CITIC SecuritiesA recent research report pointed out that fundsGameBehavior tends to ease, and local speculative groups are likely to collapse. At the end of the year, under the pressure of the “scale war” and the “revenue war”, the organization continued to organize the consumption and new energy sectors. It is expected that by the beginning of next year, institutions will usher in a time when the ranking war is over, and speculative funds driven by the logic of “organization grouping” will also be withdrawn from related products.

The company’s annual report has not yet been disclosed, but fromNorthward capitalFrom the changes in shareholding since October, it can be found that funds treat individual stocks in the sectorattitudeThere has been differentiation. The data shows that among the 56 stocks involved in the New Energy Automobile Index, 18 stocks have recently been sold off; 36 stocks have gained holdings.

In terms of reduction,Tianqi LithiumSince October, Beishang Capital has reduced its holdings of 31,046,500 shares, and its shareholding ratio has decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 0.87%. It is the stock with the largest decrease in its shareholding. In addition,Polyfluoride、Changan Automobile、Godsend materials、Yutong BusAnd other stocks accounted for a reduction of more than 1%.

In terms of holdings,Leading Intelligence、Joyson ElectronicsFavored by funds from Beijing, the shareholding ratio has increased by more than 4% since October. Ningde Times is also in the ranks of holdings, but holdings have not increased much, with a total increase of 0.59%.

(Source: e company official micro)

(Editor in charge: DF515)