原标题：“印花税”是否在积极规范市场？ 现在，香港股市的前景各不相同。 一些大佬显然是看跌的。 股市在牛市之年能否看涨？
概括
[“Stampduty”activelyregulatesthemarket?ThetrendofHongKongstocksinthemarketoutlookisnowdivergentTherearebigguyswhoareclearlybearishintheyearofthebullUnlikethecallfor“seizingpricingpower”atthebeginningof2021thetrendofHongKongstocksaftertheYearoftheOxhasbeguntobecomeconfusingintheeyesofalargenumberofinvestorsOnFebruary24theFinancialSecretaryoftheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegionGovernmentChenMaoboissuedabudgetbillexpressingthathewouldsubmitabilltoincreasethestockstampdutyratefromthecurrent01%to013%OnestonecausedawaveofwavesHongKongstockssubsequentlyplummetedand20billioncapitalwaswithdrawnfromthesouth(BrokerChina)
And early 2021PricingThe voice of “right” is different. The trend of Hong Kong stocks after the Year of the Ox has become confusing in the eyes of a large number of investors.
On February 24, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Chen Maobo, issued a budget bill, expressing that he would submit a bill to increase the stock stamp duty rate from the current 0.1% to 0.13%.
One stone caused a wave of waves, Hong Kong stocks subsequently plummeted, and 20 billion capital was withdrawn from the south. On February 25, Hong Kong stocksUchibo crotchSuccessfully rebounded under the leadership, but the seeds of bearishness have been planted.
Someone is rightBrokerageChinese reporters analyzed that although the impact of the increase in the stamp duty rate on transactions was short-lived, it was a warning sign. It is believed that Hong Kong stocks will experience many bad tests in the future. As long as the high valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not digested, the volatility of Hong Kong stocks will inevitably increase.
At the same time, some views believe that the logic of the bull market in Hong Kong stocks has not changed, and that every major shock is a good opportunity to buy high-quality assets with a good price/performance ratio.
Hong Kong version “530”Shock wave, Hong Kong actively regulates the equity market?
Many investors in A shares are impressed by the special data of “530”.
In 2007, when the A-share bull market was halfway through, when the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points, in order to calm the market’s excessive speculation enthusiasm, the relevant authorities suddenly announced in the early morning of May 30 that the stamp duty rate for A-shares was raised from one thousandth. To three thousandths.
On May 30th,The Shanghai Composite IndexIt plummeted 6.5%, and in the following five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 21.5%. Stamp duty and “530” have since left a deep mark in the hearts of A-share investors.
The Hong Kong stock market on February 24 was also hit by stamp duty. On that day, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.99%, the market value of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange erased HK$60 billion, and stocks such as Xiaomi Group and Meituan, which are preferred by mainland funds, also fell sharply.
Some market views believe that, like the “530”, Hong Kong’s increase in stamp duty seems to mean proactive adjustment of market expectations.Tiger SecuritiesInvest in researchteamIt is believed that for Hong Kong, the increase in stamp duty can relieve the pressure on the Hong Kong government’s own fiscal deficit. At the same time, in the process of global asset allocation migrating to equity markets, especially for the Chinese market, this change is more obvious. The increase in stamp duty can also be understood as a flexible tool to make this migration trend more healthy and stable.
“We have also seen that in the past six months, as the new economy got together and went public, Europe and the United States have greatly released water, and the influx of capital from the south has accelerated. The image of Hong Kong stocks as a bridge for investors at home and abroad to allocate China’s new economic assets has become more popular. Asset allocation in the world In the process of the transfer of the equity market, the use of a flexible tool like stamp duty is more like managing market expectations.”Tiger SecuritiesThe investment research team analyzed the Chinese reporters from the brokerage firm.
However, some market participants hold the opposite view.
“The first thing that needs to be clear is that the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s proposal to increase the stamp duty rate on stock transactions is not an intervention policy against the overheating of the stock market. This is different from the starting point of the Mainland to increase the stamp duty rate on stock transactions in 2007.”Guojin SecuritiesAnalystJiang Huawei believes that the fundamental reason for the fierce response of the stock market comes from the market itself, that is, the valuation of some stocks in Hong Kong stocks is “extremely high.” The high-valued market is inherently fragile and sensitive, and the market will overreact if it is slightly favorable.
Industrial SecuritiesGlobal chief strategist Zhang Yidong also believes that subjectively, Hong Kong’s increase in stock stamp duty is mainly for financial relief, not for regulating the stock market.
Zhang Yidong analyzed that affected by the new crown epidemic, Hong Kong’s fiscal deficit reached a new high. According to the monthly statistics of the Hong Kong Treasury Department, the fiscal deficit of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government of China in 2020 is as high as 229.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, the highest since 2000.The purpose of increasing the stamp duty rate on stock transactions is to increase the governmentRevenue。
Stock stamp duty contributes a lot to Hong Kong’s fiscal revenue. Based on the amount of stock transactions on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the years, it is estimated that the stamp duty income from stock transactions of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government from 2014 to 2020 will account for approximately 6% to 12% of the Hong Kong Government’s fiscal revenue. Last year, the stamp duty on stock transactions exceeded HK$60 billion.
However, Zhang Yidong also believes that objectively, because the policy exceeds expectations, it is normal to make quick adjustments in the short term.Junk stocksThere is a price to pay. He believes that the short-term Hong Kong stock market may seize the opportunity to fluctuate and gain momentum. In fact, even if the stamp duty rate is not raised this time, the Hong Kong stock market will also be under pressure to adjust. The index space for this adjustment will not be too large, but the speculation of small stocks will pay a price.
Since the beginning of 2021, the Hong Kong stock market has become very hot, showing obvious capital drive and speculationthemeThe characteristics of stock prevalence. In January 2021, the total turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange market reached 245.71 billion Hong Kong dollars; the turnover rate of the Hang Seng Composite Index was 10.4%, the highest since May 2015. Among them, the turnover rate of small-cap stocks is significantly higher than that of large and mid-cap stocks.
Are there any bulls in Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Bull?Serious institutional differences
Entering 2020, it seems that the world has changed.
At the beginning of January, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, and funds flowed southward. Institutional roadshows even chanted the slogan “Cross Hong Kong to seize pricing power”. However, with the increase in Hong Kong stamp duty, some investors became confused.
“Using the worst in the worldTrading System, The market will be closed on typhoon days, and the world’s highest handling fee will be paid, and we will find gold in a group of thousands of stocks, increase the stamp duty, and not rule out the collection of capitalProfits tax, Really poor crazy! “Some investors complained on social platforms.
In fact, some institutional investors have never recognized that Hong Kong stocks have the opportunity to obtain excess returns.
Well-knownfundManager Dong Chengfei pointed out in a speech that he is not optimistic about Hong Kong stocks. On the one hand, if there are changes in the A-share market, Hong Kong stocks as an offshore market may not necessarily have good results. In addition, the U.S. stock market is now in a big bubble that has happened once in 20 years, and it will eventually end in a stock market crash, but I don’t know when it will end. If this happens, the Hong Kong stock market will also be affected.
Jiang Huawei also expressed caution on Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks plummeted under the impact of the increase in stamp duty because they were overvalued. The high-valued market is inherently fragile and sensitive, and the market will overreact if it is slightly favorable.
Jiang Huawei said that the increase in the transaction stamp duty rate is just a “fuse” event. It cannot determine the rise or fall, but it can “add fuel to the fire”. Although the impact is short-lived, the warning is of great significance. It is believed that Hong Kong stocks will experience many bad tests in the future. As long as the high valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not digested, the volatility of Hong Kong stocks will inevitably increase. The market’s oversold rebound is due to the rising inertia brought about by the recent money-making effect, but after several more bad events, the “brake”Long and shortThe balance will be reversed.
Jiang Huawei believes that investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks will undergo a structural shift in 2021. The main opportunity for Hong Kong stocks in 2020 lies in new economy stocks. The main opportunities for Hong Kong stocks in 2021 come from: adversityReverseHong Kong’s local stocks and the transfer of pricing power caused H’s valuation gap to converge. The impact of the adjustment of the stamp duty rate is minimal.
First of all, we need to be soberly aware that Hong Kong stocks are not all valuation “depressions”. The Hang Seng Index and Hang SengState-owned Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index and other valuations are already very high. From the perspective of dividend yield indicators, the current dividend rate of the Hang Seng Index is 1.74%, which is the lowest level in the past 10 years, indicating that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is already extremely high. The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index, which represents the new economy, is also very high. The so-called “depressions” of valuation are mainly concentrated in Hong Kong’s local retail,Real estate stocks, And H shares whose valuation is biased by overseas institutions due to their offshore market position. In 2021, the vaccine will be vaccinated steadily. The worst period of Hong Kong’s local economy has passed.the companyThe reversal of adversity is just around the corner; north water continues to flow southward into Hong Kong stocks, and the pricing power of H shares is shifted. The valuation gap between A and H may continue to converge in 2021.
Zhang Yidong, who has always admired Hong Kong stocks, still insists that there are greater opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. He believes that there is a new round of bull market in Hong Kong stocks. The core logic is that global recovery drives the revaluation of the “old economy” + the high-growth alpha of China’s “new economy”. The logic of this fundamental has not changed.
The second logic is that overseas liquidity will continue to be loose.MidlandThe reserve will continue to expand its balance sheet and the trend of weaker U.S. dollar will continue, which is conducive to the allocation of Chinese assets by overseas funds. Overseas funds may be partly diverted from U.S. stocks to high-quality assets with higher cost performance.
Third, both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares benefit from the great era of Chinese social wealth allocation of equity assets.Mainland China 2currencyNormalization of policies, no quick turn, will not resolve systemic risks like 2018StockRisks will cause ups and downs in the short term, but the allocation of equity assets by residents’ wealth is in the ascendant.
He also said that investing in the Hong Kong stock market is based on fundamentals to win, and short-term fundsGameBehavior is noise regardless of the ups and downs. In the face of the current stock market turmoil, we combed through the fundamental logic, and still believe that after the shock, profit-driven investment opportunities are still the backbone of the Hong Kong stock market bull market.
It is worth noting that on February 25, led by domestic property stocks, the Hang Seng Index successfully rebounded and rose 1.20% on that day.
(Source: Brokerage China)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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