新基金“巨无霸”的“爆炸性诅咒”会使市场颤抖吗？ _东方财富网

原标题：新基金“巨无霸”会出现“爆炸性诅咒”以使市场颤抖吗？

概要

[Thenewfund”BigMac”comeswith”explosivemoneycurse”willthemarkettremble?】Theemergenceofbig-explosivefundsoftencauses“worries”thatthemarketpeaksExperiencehasshownthatwhenthefundissellingwelltheA-shareindexhasrepeatedly”topped”Willthere-emergenceofbig-hotfundsagainattractthe”explosivecurse”?Industryinsidersbelievethatunderthebackgroundofnetworthofwealthmanagementproductsmoreandmoreresidents’wealthwillenterthecapitalmarketintheformofinvestmentfundsWiththeincreasingpowerofpublicofferingfundsintheA-sharemarketthehotissuanceofpublicofferingfundsmaynotbeinthelatestageofthemarket’srise(ChinaSecuritiesJournal)

　　E FundJanuary 19announcementShows the competitive advantage of E Fund issued the day beforeenterpriseThe confirmation ratio of valid subscription applications on the day is 6.253716%.Based on this calculation, the subscription scale of E Fund’s competitive advantage enterprises reached 239.858 billion yuan, a recordPublic offeringfundSingle in historyFund subscriptionThe largest scale record.

The emergence of big blast funds often causes “worries” that the market peaks. Experience has shown that when the fund is selling well, the A-share index has repeatedly “topped”. Will the re-emergence of a big blast fund again attract the “Booming Curse”?The industry believes that inFinancial managementproductUnder the background of net worth, more and more residents’ wealth will be invested in investment funds.Invest inThis market.along withRaised fundsThe right to speak in the A-share market is increasing, and public offeringsFund issuanceThe hot situation may not be in the late stage of the market’s rise.

Can’t stop breaking records

In the history of public fundsNew fundThe record of subscription scale has been broken frequently since 2020.

On October 15, 2007, CIIC Morgan Asia Pacific Advantage obtained 116.261 billion yuan in subscription funds in just one day, becoming the first new fund with a single subscription of over 100 billion yuan in the history of public funds, and it also placed an order. Only the record of the highest subscription scale for new funds.

This record of Shanghai Investment Morgan Holdings has been maintained for more than ten years, and it will not be broken by Ruiyuan Fund until 2020. On February 18, 2020, Ruiyuan Funds under Chen Guangming began to issue the three-year mixed value of Ruiyuan Equilibrium. According to the final subscription confirmation announcement, the effective subscription funds of the three-year mixed value of Ruiyuan Equilibrium reached 122.38 billion yuan, surpassing the advantages of Shanghai Investment Morgan Asia Pacific. , Breaking the long-standing record of single fund subscription funds.

Only a few months later, the record of Ruiyuan Fund was quicklyPenghua Fundbreak in. The Penghua Ingenious Selection, which was issued on July 8, 2020, easily exceeded the upper limit of the initial offering of 30 billion yuan.according toFund announcement, The fund’s final allotment ratio is 21.88%, and the subscription funds are as high as 137.112 billion yuan.

E Fund’s competitive advantage enterprise issued on January 18, 2021 has become the first fund in the history of public funds with a subscription scale of more than 200 billion yuan. E Fund’s announcement on January 19 showed that E Fund’s competitive advantage companies had ended the fundraising on January 18. The fund’s cumulative effective subscription application amount (excluding interest during the fundraising period) has exceeded the upper limit of 15 billion yuan for the initial fundraising scale specified in the offering announcement. According to the relevant provisions of the offering announcement, E Fund will partially confirm the effective subscription application on January 18 by adopting the principle of “doomsday ratio confirmation”. The fund’s effective subscription application confirmation ratio on January 18 was 6.253716%. Based on this calculation, the subscription scale of E Fund’s competitive advantage enterprises reached 239.858 billion yuan.

“Explosion Curse” or be broken

“Explosive funds are a signal that the bull market is peaking.” This is a sentence often mentioned by investors. Historically, when the fund was difficult to sell, it was often an opportunity to buy bottom A shares; when the fund was selling well, A shares might overheat and peak.

A reporter from China Securities Journal combed through the years since 2010Partial equity fundThere was a wave of issuance climax in 2015. Considering the market trend at the time, in 2015,The Shanghai Composite IndexUp 9.41%,CSI 300Increased 5.58%, especially in the first half of the year, reaching 32.23% and 26.58% respectively. However, in 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 12.31%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 11.28%.

Specific to the monthly issuance of funds, according to the new era securities strategy researchAnalystStatistics by Fan Jituo, since 2009, public offeringPartial equity fundIssuance of over 50 billion yuan in a single monthShare11 times. Among them, 6 times followed by a large-level (above half a year) turning point, and 3 times followed by a small-level (monthly or quarterly) adjustment.

Fan Jituo believes that fund issuance has becomeContrarian indicatorThe main reason is that public funds were marginalized in the stock market from 2008 to 2018. Prior to this, public funds’ voice in the stock market continued to decline, resulting in each equity fund issuance at a later stage.

Judging from the issuance of a single big explosion fund, according toTianfeng SecuritiesAccording to statistics, historically, the issuance of a single explosive fund means that market sentiment is at or near a stage high. After sorting out 33 equity funds with a total issuance of more than 10 billion yuan, it is shown that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen one month and three months after the issuance of these funds.

However, in the view of industry insiders, the issuance of explosive funds since last year is very different from the past, and it is expected to break the “curse.” A fund source said that since 2019, hot funds have appeared one after another, and multiple factors such as the industry’s money-making effect and market environment have attracted investors. Behind this, especially in the context of net worth of wealth management products, more and more residents’ wealth will enter the capital market in the form of investment funds. With the increasing voice of public funds in A shares, the hot issuance of public funds may not be in the late stage of market rise.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

(Editor in charge: DF512)