万亿超市！ 这个行业在许多省市完全流行！ 哪些公司带头？ _东方财富网

原标题：万亿超市！ 这个行业是完全火爆的，许多省市都在推动它！ 哪些公司带头？

概括

[TrillionSuperMarket!Thisindustryiscompletelypopularinmanyprovincesandcities!Whichcompaniestakethelead?】Withtheintroductionofthe”30·60″targetforcarbonpeakandcarbonneutralitythestrategicpositionofrenewableenergyrepresentedbyphotovoltaicsandwindpowerhasbecomeprominentEnergystorageasakeytechnologysupportingthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyisexpectedtostandonthenextfrontierAccordingtoestimatesby2030theintegrationofopticalstorageinmostareasofmycountrycanachieveparityandtheenergystoragemarketspacecanreachmorethan12trillionyuan(Ecompany)

With the introduction of the “30·60” target for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the strategic position of renewable energy represented by photovoltaics and wind power has been highlighted. Energy storage, as a key technology supporting the development of renewable energy, is expected to take the next step. According to estimates, by 2030, the integration of optical storage in most areas of my country can achieve parity, and the energy storage market space can reach more than 1.2 trillion yuan.

The reporter noticed that since this year, many places have introduced policies to support the development of the “new energy + energy storage” model. From the perspective of wording, the local attitudes towards energy storage have also changed from “encouragement” and “recommendation” to “priority” and “requirement”. “. In addition to the strong promotion of power-side energy storage, emerging consumer-side energy storage applications have also been greatly developed.

However, behind the seemingly prosperous industry, the energy storage industry still has hidden worries such as high costs, low user acceptance on the power side, and even “bad money drives out good money”. To embrace the trillion-dollar market, energy storage still has a long way to go, and policy support, technological change, and model innovation have become the consensus of the industry.

　　Many provinces and cities promote “new energy + energy storage”

The domestic energy storage industry has gone through multiple stages of development. From the perspective of different application scenarios, as the business model of user-side energy storage is relatively clear, it has also become the earliest emerging energy storage application. Generally speaking, there is a difference between peak and valley electricity prices, and user-side energy storage can use this price difference to make a fixed profit. This has also become the main driving force for the construction of user-side energy storage.

However, as industrial and commercial electricity prices continue to fall, the above-mentioned peak-to-valley price differential is gradually compressed, and the profit margin of user-side energy storage has narrowed. Due to various factors, the installed capacity of user-side energy storage was overtaken by grid-side energy storage in 2018; at the same time, as the proposal to include energy storage costs in the transmission and distribution price fell through, grid-side energy storage projects also encountered “sudden braking”. “The embarrassment.

In the face of continuous changes in application scenarios, energy storage on the power supply side has attracted attention. According to incomplete statistics, since this year, at least 11 provinces have required new energy power stations to be equipped with energy storage. Among them, 9 provinces have clarified the size and duration of energy storage capacity, and 1 province requires energy storage to be configured in accordance with the requirements of grid dispatching. Provinces give priority to projects with energy storage in the project application and scoring process.

Qinghai’s policies are representative. In January this year, Qinghai Province issued the “Several Measures to Support the Development of the Energy Storage Industry (Trial)”. Among the many support measures, it was first mentioned to actively promote the coordinated development of energy storage and renewable energy. The first is to implement “new energy + storage”. The integrated development model of energy, and the second is to implement a coordinated development model of “hydropower + new energy + energy storage”.

In response to the “new energy + energy storage” model, Qinghai Province stated that for new energy projects, the energy storage capacity in principle should not be less than 10% of the installed capacity of new energy projects, and the energy storage time should be more than 2 hours. Priority support will be given to integrated projects with a high energy storage ratio and a long time; at the same time, the province’s grid electricity sold by the self-generated and self-storage facilities in the energy storage project will be given an operating subsidy of 0.10 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

Qinghai’s policy is only a microcosm of the current local government’s push for “new energy + energy storage”. Other provinces include Ningxia, Gansu, Guangxi, and Shandong. On the whole, most local policies require that the proportion of energy storage is not less than 5%, 10% or 20% for classification, and it is generally clear that “energy storage should be longer than 2 hours.”

It is worth mentioning that since last year, the wording has gradually changed in the policy documents related to the deployment of new energy sources in energy storage. For example, words such as “encouragement” and “recommendation” have been more transformed into “priority” and “requirement”, which is evident in the fact that local governments are pushing the “new energy + energy storage” model.

Judging from the development experience of the energy storage market, it has not been smooth sailing. Then, why is energy storage receiving attention again at the current time?Kehua DataCao Jian, deputy general manager of the New Energy Business Department, pointed out in an interview with the e company reporter that the “14th Five-Year Plan” is a key year and window period for achieving the “dual carbon” goal, and achieving the “dual carbon” goal will undoubtedly speed up the energy structure. Reform and increase the development of new energy.

“Energy storage is transitioning from initial commercialization to large-scale development. After experiencing the ’13th Five-Year Plan’ project demonstration, energy storage technology routes, cost levels, safety and controllability, etc. have already possessed relatively mature application feasibility. Under the guidance of policies successively introduced by various regions, energy storage has begun to enter a new stage of development. This is necessary and timely for the development of energy storage.” Cao Jian said.

Behind the local government’s efforts to promote energy storage, the scale of “new energy + energy storage” has also been greatly developed.SungrowChen Zhi, general manager of the energy storage sales center, told the e company reporter that thanks to the guiding policies issued by local grid companies and provincial authorities, 70% of China’s energy storage market in 2020 will come from “new energy + chemical energy storage”.

The reporter noted that the national level is also brewing support policies for the energy storage industry.According to the information disclosed by the Jiangsu Provincial Development and Reform Commission a few days ago, Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, and his party went to JiangsuResearch. The research team listened to the construction of new energy storage power stations, the project investment and construction of operating companies, operating models, cost recovery methods, local government subsidies, and the willingness to invest in the next step, and discussed with the companies on the difficulties encountered in production and operation Issues and relevant policy suggestions were exchanged.

　　The high cost of energy storage needs to be solved

Although the combination of “new energy + energy storage” is widely favored by the industry, there have been many “unacceptable” situations in the process of landing, causing various participants to complain.

At present, the “configuration of energy storage priority grid connection” has been privately reached by grid companies and new energy developers as a hidden rule, gradually becoming a clear rule, and in the absence of a smoothing mechanism, the additional cost of energy storage has been ” “Leaning to one side” is concentrated on power generation companies, which can be described as “a lot of pressure” for new energy projects that have just entered the era of parity.

An energy storage practitioner in East China told a reporter from e company in an interview that for power generation companies, the current cost of energy storage on the power supply side is an additional increase and can only choose to absorb it within the project.

“The compulsory matching of solar storage and wind storage is not the best from a technical point of view. From the perspective of maximizing economic efficiency, energy storage only cooperates with solar and wind on the power generation side and cannot achieve the best benefits.” Chen Zhi told the e company reporter, “The economics of the above combination are largelyGo to the meetingAffected by the way and frequency of grid dispatching. “

It is reported that because the operation mode and local absorption capacity of the grid system change in real time, and the distributed energy storage on the power supply side configured in a certain proportion, there are defects that it cannot be adjusted flexibly and the overall utilization rate is low; on the other hand, the current The capacity of the energy storage battery on the power supply side is limited. In areas with a high rate of abandonment of wind and light, the electricity generated by wind turbines and photovoltaic panels beyond the battery capacity can only be wasted if they cannot be connected to the grid in time.

“From the current situation, the economics of power generation groups to invest in energy storage are not controllable, and it is difficult to determine the performance indicators of energy storage equipment, let alone what standards can be discussed.” Chen Zhi said.

A central enterprise wind power operator also talked to the e company reporter about this difficulty. For new energy operators, the biggest constraint on energy storage is cost, which directly reduces the level of revenue. “If the revenue does not meet our requirements, then energy storage projects cannot be done now. As a central enterprise, all of our projects have strict standards for the rate of return.”

The person further pointed out that compared to electrochemical energy storage, the more recognized energy storage method is pumped storage. However, although the cost of pumped storage is relatively low, it also needs to face risks such as project approval, long construction period, and uncertain future electricity price trends. “In the short term, operators are doing energy storage more based on the actual requirements of the project. For example, the local government requires that only equipped with energy storage can obtain new new energy projects, and we will be able to do energy storage. Otherwise, it is currently Certainly not.”

The advantage of electrochemical energy storage is its high flexibility, but in the absence of a standard strong allocation model, the phenomenon of “bad money driving out good money” with cost-oriented energy storage modules has emerged. “Because the future benefits are not clear, everyone may tend to configure energy storage with poor performance and low initial cost, resulting in the market being flooded with low-performance energy storage equipment, affecting the healthy development of the industry.” Chen Zhi said frankly.

“Most of the’new energy + energy storage’ projects won the lowest bids. Last year, the cost of energy storage on the power generation side was cut by a third.”Guoxuan Hi-TechHan Yichun, head of the energy storage division, told the e company reporter that many companies allocate energy storage mainly to meet policy requirements and accelerate grid connection. As for the specific performance of the grid’s adjustment depth, response speed, and backup duration, it seems to be compliant. No one is going to pursue this matter. However, this situation will definitely improve in the future.

It is worth mentioning that, unlike the early new energy power generation projects, energy storage has not received too many subsidies. At present, when energy storage is installed on the power supply side, all provinces do not have any subsidies except Xinjiang and Qinghai. The subsidy situation in Qinghai is as mentioned above, and Xinjiang is to provide 0.55 yuan/kWh of charging power compensation for electric energy storage facilities that enter the charging state according to the instructions of the power dispatching agency.

“The subsidies in Qinghai and Xinjiang are actually difficult to cover the investment cost of energy storage. Based on the energy storage price in the domestic market, it is difficult for energy storage companies to make a profit.” Chen Zhi said that in terms of the proportion of equipment, according to the current energy storage Costs and comprehensive estimates of the income level of photovoltaic power plants, we think that an average of 15% and an energy storage ratio of about 2 hours is a result that can be accepted by many parties. In some provinces, due to the excessively high energy storage ratio requirements, the implementation of the project in 2020 will be even more difficult.

During the two sessions this year, Tongwei Group Chairman Liu Hanyuan also paid attention to the problems faced by “new energy + energy storage” and suggested that renewable energy power generation projects should not be required to be equipped with energy storage systems. For renewable energy with voluntary energy storage systems For power generation projects, on the basis of guaranteeing full purchases, an appropriate subsidy price will be set on the energy storage electricity price.

　　Prospects for user-side energy storage

In fact, before the start of the mode of configuring energy storage on the power supply side of new energy sources, energy storage, as an indispensable part of the balance of the power system, has already played a certain role in participating in peak and frequency modulation, peak and valley filling, etc. It is no longer a new term. .

With the development of electrochemical energy storage technology based on lithium batteries, energy storage application scenarios other than the power supply side have been continuously explored, and a series of new business formats have been derived. Among them, user-side energy storage is widely favored by industry insiders.

“Power-side energy storage can only be regarded as an intermediate stage, not the final solution. At present, the power-side energy storage is still relatively passive, mostly relying on policy-driven, and not really considering the optimized system. “Chen Zijian, chairman of Anhui Zhongke Haiao Electric Co., Ltd., told the e company reporter, “We believe that distributed user-side energy storage will have a lot of room for development in the future. Because the final balance of the grid still depends on power generation and electricity consumption. And the ubiquitous user side storage can precisely meet this demand.”

Han Yichun also said that with the development of industry and commerce and the advancement of transportation electrification, electricity consumption and power load will continue to increase, and the demand for energy storage on the user side is expected to increase substantially. Afterwards, he showed reporters several typical application scenarios: “For example, in places where transmission and distribution are congested, like old urban areas, there is a need for capacity expansion due to increased load, and grid planning and distribution speed are not so fast. At this time, if it is equipped with energy storage and a virtual expansion, the load problem can be solved quickly; for example, with the popularization of electric vehicles, the construction of charging facilities will gradually keep up. Under the condition of a significant increase in the charging load, if you can The configuration of energy storage systems in charging stations on the one hand alleviates the impact of the high-current charging of the charging piles on the regional grid during the charging peak, and on the other hand, through the peak-to-valley price difference, it brings very considerable benefits to the charging station.”

In fact, the above-mentioned application fields have also been praised by policies and have been demonstrated and promoted in many places. In the “New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” released by my country last year, it was clearly proposed to encourage the construction of a multifunctional integrated station for “optical storage, charging and discharging”. Since 2020, State Grid has built a number of integrated optical storage and charging stations in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Raohe, Hebei, Shijiazhuang, Ningxia Yinchuan, and Yanqing, Beijing. Cooperation.

“The energy storage format combined with electric vehicles, I think, is expected to usher in an explosive development in the next five years.” Han Yichun said frankly.

At the moment, the prevalence of the power exchange model is nurturing new soil for energy storage. “In fact, battery swapping is a typical user-side energy storage, but because the rapid conversion technology of DC power has not yet been popularized, the technology of’replacement’ has been developed first. With the improvement of battery cost performance and user-side energy storage technology, DC Micro The power grid may become the mainstream.” Chen Zijian said.

According to statistics from the State Grid, if the number of electric vehicles in my country reaches 300 million in 2050, the total battery storage on the car will reach 20 billion kWh, which is approximately equal to the current total daily consumption of electricity in China.Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, once proposed that once the battery swap mode is promoted, the battery can be replaced by the battery.bankhold.At that time, the batterybankIt will become the largest energy storage device, which can store energy for the grid and can also conduct electricity trading.

“As long as the battery’s cycle life is long enough, energy storage and power will eventually be integrated.” Han Yichun said.

In addition, base station energy storage is also an emerging branch of user-side energy storage. Early last year,China MobilePurchased 610.2 million Ah of lithium iron phosphate battery products for communications, with a maximum bid limit of 2.508 billion yuan;China TowerversusChina TelecomThere has also been a joint bidding or a separate bidding for lithium iron phosphate batteries. In general, new infrastructure is pushing 5G construction to a peak, and the demand for base station energy storage is growing rapidly.

Of course, before the user-side energy storage has yet to form a large-scale application, many issues still need to be addressed. At present, in the field of industry and commerce, the mode of peak-to-valley arbitrage on the user side through energy storage power stations is relatively mature, but industry insiders say that policies still need to be improved.

“Currently, most of the energy storage power stations in industrial parks are’build your own stage and sing by yourself’. Generally, they are used to cut peaks and fill valleys, reduce electricity expenses, or carry out peak and valley arbitrage. The stored power is only internally digested by the enterprise. Entering the National Grid, it is impossible to form a closed loop of power consumption, and it is difficult to smooth power output.” The aforementioned energy storage practitioners in East China told the e company reporter.

At the same time, according to calculations, the peak-to-valley peak-to-valley business model can only be profitable when the peak-to-valley spread reaches 0.7 yuan/kWh. However, the current peak-to-valley spread in other provinces except Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan None of them reached that level.

　　All parties in the industry chain are actively preparing for war

Although the development of the energy storage market still faces many problems, the potential scale of energy storage does not make anyone doubt. Recently, Li Jianlin, vice chairman of the Energy Storage Front Runner Alliance, introduced at an industry conference that by 2025, when the cost of energy storage drops to 1,500 yuan/KWh, consumer-side energy storage in most areas of my country can achieve parity; in the stock market With a penetration rate of 30%, my country’s installed capacity of energy storage can reach 435GWh, and the market size is about 650 billion yuan.

By 2030, when the cost of energy storage drops to 1,000 yuan/KWh, most areas of my country can achieve parity with the integration of optical storage; with a stock market penetration rate of 60%, the size of my country’s energy storage market can reach 1.2 trillion yuan.

Another forecast shows that under the “dual-carbon” overall target, starting from 2021, the annual installed capacity of wind energy and photovoltaic must be 100GW. If energy storage is configured at 15% of the capacity, approximately 15GW of energy storage needs to be added every year. With 2 hours of standard configuration, electrochemical energy storage requires 30GWh per year.

Generally speaking, in the lithium battery energy storage system, the three most important and most important links are lithium battery, PCS (inverter) and BMS (battery management system). It can be seen that on the eve of the explosion of the energy storage industry, all parties in the industry chain are actively preparing for battle.

The battery cost accounts for more than 60% of the total cost of the energy storage system and is one of the most important links. Han Yichun told reporters that the most important thing for battery manufacturers is to make standardized products. “Our current plan is to bind as many external partners as possible, and then release our standard products to external platforms, allowing them to expand different application scenarios.”

　　Kehua DataIt has core advantages in energy storage PCS. The person in charge of the company’s energy storage business told reporters that for energy storage PCS alone, its hardware cost accounts for about 10% of the system cost; but as a core device that links energy storage batteries to the grid, The role of energy storage PCS is far beyond its cost. “If the energy storage system is likened to a mature and stable human body system, the energy storage PCS can be described as the central nervous system of the control system, which plays a role in connecting the brain and limbs.”

　　Kehua DataIt has accumulated rich experience in multiple scenarios such as energy storage, power generation, transmission and distribution. At the same time, it has expanded innovative applications in multiple fields such as micro-grid, integrated energy, and enabling low-carbon IDC. It is precisely based on the accumulation of these innovations that Kehua is also right Energy storage has a new understanding.

Cao Jian said that at present, the energy storage system is moving towards high voltage energy level and high energy density. By increasing the system voltage and energy density, the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour is reduced, and the cost curve of energy storage is continuously reduced. It is worth noting that the safety of energy storage systems and the recycling and reuse of batteries are also objectively restricting the healthy and sustainable development of the energy storage industry. In addition, the lack of energy storage industry standards, lagging behind, and unsound business models have also caused problems for the energy storage industry on the “soft” side.

On the one hand, Kehua Data has realized the improvement of energy storage economy through the layout of energy storage system integration and the integration of industrial development ecology; on the other hand, it has also taken the lead in formulating a number of energy storage standards, opening up key technical interfaces of the industry chain, and promoting the establishment of a unified and orderly system. The development direction of the industry.

“From the energy storage industry itself, all companies should strengthen innovation in core components and materials, product technology, profit models, etc., form a joint force on the basis of orderly competition, unify industry standards, and jointly promote the industry’s rapid and healthy development. Development.” In Cao Jian’s view, the endogenous motivation of participants in the energy storage industry is critical.

At the same time, he also pointed out that energy storage is an emerging industry. To promote the rapid development of this industry, strong support from policies, finance and power grids is needed, and the market needs to be more tolerant. “Policies should fully encourage enterprise innovation and provide policy support for profit models; financial institutions should strengthen financial support, encourage energy storage companies to strengthen innovation and R&D, and encourage users to use energy storage; the power system encourages power stations equipped with energy storage to improve business The model fully reflects its value.” Cao Jian told reporters.

(Article source: e company)

(Editor in charge: DF532)