黄金交易提醒：美国债券收益率保持强劲，黄金价格在连续六个下跌之后突破了另一个重要支撑！ _东方财富网

原始标题：黄金交易提醒：美国债券收益率保持强劲，新案例触及四个月低点，黄金价格在连续六个下跌之后突破了另一个重要支撑！

概括

[Goldtradingreminder:USTreasuryyieldsremainstrongandgoldpricesbreakanotherimportantsupportaftersixconsecutivedeclines!】Friday(February19)Asiansessionspotgoldfellslightlytradingaround1767OnThursday(February18)goldpriceswerealmoststablehoveringnearan11-weeklowandtradingoscillatedthroughoutthedayInvestors’optimismabouttheglobaleconomicrecoverypushedupUSTreasuryyieldsmakinggoldlessattractiveInadditiontheslowdownoftheepidemicgrowthratetotheslowestratesinceOctoberfurtherhitthegoldsafe-havenmarketbuttheunexpectedincreaseinthenumberofinitialjoblessclaimsandtherapidadvancementofthestimuluscasebytheDemocraticPartyprovidedsomesupporttothegoldpriceTheshort-termgoldpricefurtherfellbelowtheNovember30supportlevelof1764andmaycontinuetotestthe1700supportlevel(Huitong)

On Friday (February 19) Asian session, spot gold fell slightly, trading around 1767.On Thursday (February 18), the price of gold was almost stable, hovering near an 11-week low, and trading oscillated throughout the day.investmentOptimism about global economic recovery pushes up the U.S.Public debtYields make gold less attractive.In addition, the slowing of the epidemic growth rate to the slowest since October further hit the gold safe-haven market, but the initial requestunemploymentThe unexpected increase in the number of gold and the rapid advancement of the stimulus case by the Democratic Party provided some support to the gold price. The short-term gold price further fell below the November 30 support level of 1764, and may continue to test the 1700 support level.

Pay attention to European and American countries in the daymanufacturingSMEs, Are expected to fall slightly, and the price of gold may gain some support.

U.S. bond yields continue to rise, gold prices are under pressure for six consecutive declines

With the easing of new cases and the advancement of vaccination, expectations of economic recovery and inflation expectations continue to rise, and U.S. bond yields have continued to rise. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose again by nearly 2% on Thursday and hit a new high in nearly a year on Wednesday.Bond yieldThe rise brought huge downward pressure on gold, and the price of gold recorded a six-day losing streak on Thursday, as public bonds are more attractive than gold for storage of value.

The break-even inflation rate, which measures expected inflation, reached 2.2%, the highest level since August 2014.

Ploutus Capital Advisorthe companychiefmarketing strategyTeacher James Hatzigiannis said,Gold has been hit hard in the past few trading days due to rising bond yields. He mentioned,The recent Bitcoin boom may have also shifted some interest from gold to cryptocurrencyon.

This is a more attractive asset at this stage, indeed,The only way for gold to break through the psychological barrier of $1,800 is to calm down bond yields.And it is confirmed that the epidemic is about to enter the last stop.

He said that in terms of a very short-term purchase value, he now likes gold, but in the long run, silver is more attractive to us.

Global growth of new crown infection cases slows to slowest since October

Nearly a year after the World Health Organization declared the new crown virus a pandemic, the global epidemic is now showing some encouraging signs, and the number of new infections globally has dropped sharply.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University,As of the week of February 14, the number of new confirmed cases of new crowns worldwide was the lowest since October, at 2.7 million. This is equivalent to a 2.5% increase in the cumulative number of confirmed cases over the previous week, the smallest increase since the beginning of the epidemic, and less than half of the increase a month ago.

The number of new deaths has also begun to decrease, but it is not very significant.The average number of new deaths in a single day in the past five days was less than 10,000, which was lower than the peak level of over 18,000 in a single day in mid-January。

It is too early to assert that vaccines are the main reason for the improvement in epidemic data, and some of the appearances in the trend may reflect to some extent the reduction in testing during the holidays and the severe snowstorms in the winter in the United States. However, it is clear that global social distancing behavior and epidemic prevention and lockdown measures are helping to reduce the number of epidemics.

Of course, it is too early to declare victory in the fight against the epidemic. Mutated strains–the identified mutations and possible mutations–are a very real threat to recovery and may cause the number of infections to rise again. Health officials have issued warnings not to be complacent. According to some calculations, it will take several years for global herd immunity to be achieved, so the recovery of long-distance travel is also true.

There are two factors that may contribute to the reduction in the number of new confirmed cases and deaths in the coming months. The first is the arrival of spring in the northern hemisphere, because the new coronavirus usually tends to be less active in warmer weather. The other is that the largest vaccination in history has just begun. More than 186 million doses of vaccine have been vaccinated in 82 countries and regions, and more regions will start vaccination in the coming weeks.

Alleviation of the epidemic will weakenmarketThe risk aversion sentiment is negative for gold prices.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States remains high, and the jump in building permits indicates that the housing market remains strong

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly increased last week, which increasedEmploymentReport the possibility of poor performance for the second consecutive month, despite the downward trend in the number of new crown infections. The weekly initial jobless claims released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday are the most timely data reflecting the health of the economy, and may help US President Biden to promote the 1.9 trillion (trillion) dollar economic recovery plan.

As of the week of February 13, after seasonal adjustments,The number of initial applications for relief funds increased by 13,000 to 861,000.The previous week’s data was revised to receive 55,000 more applications than previously reported.

As of the end of January, at least 18.3 million Americans were receivingUnemployment benefits. Unless Congress approves the spending plan of the Biden administration, the government’s benefits for millions of people will expire in mid-March.

Century Foundation senior researcher Andrew Stettner said: “Strong epidemic assistance is the symptomatic medicine that the U.S. economy currently needs to get Americans back to what they wantjobspost。”

Economists estimate that the number of applicants last week was 765,000. Taking into account the decrease in the number of new crown cases, the government has spent nearly 900 billion US dollars in additional aid at the end of December 2020, and the White House is about to introduce a large-scale stimulus plan. The increase in the number of applicants for the second consecutive week has puzzled many people.

Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic adviser to Brean Capital in New York, said, “Although the economic rebound in the first quarter seems to be stronger than expected, the current job market does not seem to be the case.”

　　laborThe sluggish market may cause the expected inflation to accelerate this year.Decision makercause trouble.The second report released by the Ministry of Labor showed that imports in JanuarypriceRecorded the biggest increase in the past nine years, affected by energyproductRising prices and a weaker dollar boosted.

But the economy is improving steadily, with the housing market and manufacturing as the main pillars. In the third report, the US Department of Commerce announced thatConstruction permits surged by 10.4% in January, with an annual rate of 1.881 million units, the highest level since May 2006.

　　Citigroup(Citigroup) based in New YorkAnalystVeronica Clark said: “The strong growth momentum of the leading indicator of building permits has been confirmed again. The property market activity will remain strong in 2021, especially the new house construction activity, which will become the growth engine in the coming months。”

The increase in the number of initial jobless claims has caused a certain drag on the US dollar index and has a certain supporting effect on the gold price.

Yellen insists on the necessity of implementing a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said,Despite recent strong retail sales and record highs in the US stock market, the economy still needs a $1.9 trillion rescue plan.

“It’s very important to have a large-scale stimulus plan that can deal with the pain caused by the epidemic,” Yellen said on Thursday. “Too little is more expensive than implementing a huge plan.costMuch larger. “

Yellen pointed out that compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic, more than 9 million Americans are still unemployed, of which 4 million Americans have completely withdrawn.labor forceTeam.

Data released on Thursday showed that the number of first-time applicants for the US state government’s unemployment benefit program rose to the highest level in four weeks, indicating that despite the signs of easing of the new crown epidemic, the labor market is still experiencing new setbacks.

The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week reached 861,000, which was not only much higher than expected, but also higher than the highest level during the 2007-09 recession.

　　The House of Representatives plans to vote on President Biden’s stimulus plan on February 26. The Democrats tried to pass the bill in less than four weeks.

The expectation that a large-scale stimulus plan will be launched will benefit gold prices to a certain extent.

In general, the trend of gold prices is quite weak, and the day may usher in a seven-day losing streak. With the price of gold further falling below the support level of 1764 on November 30, the downside below the price of gold is further opened up, and the price of gold may fall further in the short-term. The next important support can be seen at 1700. From a fundamental point of view, the expected rebound in economic recovery continues to push up U.S. bond yields, and the peak of the epidemic has passed. These factors are not conducive to the upward trend of gold prices.

At 9:55 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at US$1,767.24 per ounce.

(Source: Huitong.com)

(Editor in charge: DF506)