概要
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Chuancai Securities: Pricing of high-end liquor continues to be firm Hot Spring Festival Quotes
High-end liquor approval prices continue to be firm, the Spring Festival market is booming, and the terminalpriceContinue to climb. The approved price of Feitian Moutai continued to remain high this week. The price of FCL Moutai was about 3200 yuan/bottle, and the bulk bottle was about 2,430 yuan/bottle. As terminal demand remains strong, inventory is relatively tight, generally less than 2 weeks, and payment is basically completed. Due to the short supply of high-end liquor, Moutai dealers across the country are driving up prices and hoarding. At present, governments in many places have set up task forces to strictly control Moutai market prices.In addition, Moutai will release the Chinese zodiac wine for the Year of the Ox online on the evening of February 4, including fourBrandOf 5productAmong them, Moutai Prince Liquor Zodiac Liquor has been released for five consecutive years and has been widely welcomed by the market. It is expected to become Moutai sales in 2021.Main force。WuliangyeThe approved price in major regions is around 960-970 yuan/bottle, and the channel inventory level is maintained at about 2 weeks.Luzhou LaojiaoThe approved price is around 870 yuan/bottle, which is stable at a high level, and the inventory is within 1 month.
Wine enterprises have entered the Spring FestivalStock upStatus, some wine companies adjust channels and prices through methods such as stopping goods and raising prices to prepare for the peak season. Mao Wulu’s approval price continues to be firm,Movable pinThe situation is good and the inventory is relatively tight.We believe that the 2021 Spring Festival will be less likely to be affected by the epidemic on a large scale. The base number in the first quarter of 2020 is superimposed on the strong terminal demand for the 2021 Spring Festival.PerformanceHigh certainty, related subject matter:Kweichow Moutai、Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoWait.
Guosen Securities: Both supply and marketing are booming!The first quarter performance of the liquor industry is more certain
The current domestic epidemic situation is recurring, which affects medium and large-scale gatherings and consumption. The demand for high-end wine business banquets and gift giving is negligible. The sub-high-end and real estate wine parts are affected by the epidemic, but they can still be returned through small gatherings and group purchases. To supplement, the low-end alcohol just needs to be self-drinking is less affected by the epidemic and even benefits from the epidemic. At the same time, the number of new epidemics in the north is gradually returning to zero, and consumption is accelerating recovery. Terminal tobacco hotels and supermarkets have basically opened their doors to resume normal operations, and business group buying and community group buying have also been launched one after another. Liquor can still be expected during the Spring Festival peak season.
The current situation of liquor is weakened by the epidemic. From the current situation, the supply and marketing of liquor during the Spring Festival are still booming. The liquor industry’s first quarter performance is more certain.Liquor DebutKweichow Moutai、Wuliangye、Luzhou Laojiao, Next recommendedShanxi Fenjiu、Shunxin Agriculture、Gujing GongjiuAnd followYanghe shares、This world、Alcoholic liquor、ShuijingfangAnd willing to wait.
Tianfeng Securities: Moutai and Laojiao continue to set new highs High-end liquor is still the preferred track
sectionthe companyContinue to set new highs one after another, and hold on to the core targets. After the liquor industry pulled back some time ago, the recent rebound has been obvious. After it is expected to gradually land, Moutai and Laojiao will continue to set new highs, and high-end liquor is still the preferred track.Looking to the future, the 14th Five-Year Plan for wine companies in 2021 is expected to start well. If it is higher than expected, there are still stimulus factors. From a month-on-month perspective, the performance side of low-base superimposed wine companies’ price increases will appear and continue to improve. Looking at the pattern, the competition for liquor will intensify. Consumption upgrades continue, and wine companies are still struggling to seize the market with all their energies, raising products, core targets and advantagesenterpriseContinue to be competitive. High-end is the first to be promoted, and the second-high-end is preferred to the expected difference. Core gold stocks “Luzhou Laojiao+Kouzijiao“constant.
Huafu Securities: Leading companies are more capable of responding to crises and industry competition
According to channel feedback, the ex-factory price of the customized version of Moutai, which accounts for 4-5% of the total sales, has been increased by about 50%. The ex-factory price is expected to be between 1500-2200 yuan.profitThicken. and,Kweichow MoutaiWe continued to invest 1,499 yuan/bottle of loose bottle Moutai in Tmall’s flagship store to implement the increase in the proportion of direct sales. We continue to be optimistic that the increase in the proportion of direct sales will increase the company’s revenue and profits. According to channel feedback, the approval price of Wuliangye’s general five months after the increase before the Spring Festival is still stable at 950-970 yuan. Therefore, we still recommend Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye two leading companies with stable operations and relatively stable performance expectations. In the long run, the competitive landscape of the liquor sector remains unchanged, leading companies are more capable of responding to crises and industry competition, and the market agglomeration effect is gradually increasing. Sub-high-end and mid-end liquors with greater flexibility may usher in a performance turning point and gradual differentiation. It is recommended that long-term attention be paid to its reform effects.
Guosheng Securities: Thousand YuanPrice bandHeavy volume can be expected 2000 yuan has become a new threshold for high-end
In the post-epidemic era, high-end wine is in a price increase cycle. Judging from the development history of the liquor industry in the past 20 years, the price of high-end liquor has shown a relatively obvious cyclical trend, and the overall upward trend is in a spiral.As 2020 globalcurrencysupplyWith the increase in volume and asset prices, with the recovery of demand, high-end liquors may interpret the upward trend of liquor prices in 2009-2012 in the next 2-3 years. The price of one thousand yuan is brought into the “people’s home”, and the volume can be expected. The consumer price band presents a leap-forward development cycle. Since 2015, with the recovery of the industry, the price band of 300-600 yuan has become the “growth” price band of the liquor industry. In the post-epidemic era, when the price belt transition is underway, the “growth” price belt shifts from 300-600 yuan to 600-1000 yuan. In the 1,000-yuan price belt, there are also variables in the competitive landscape. Redefine the high-end price band, and 2000 yuan has become the threshold for high-end wine. In the past, we regarded Mao Wulu as the big three of high-end wines. In the past five years, its price bands have been clearly differentiated. With the upgrading of consumption, we should reposition high-end wines. The terminal price of Maowulu in 2010 was 700-800 yuan, reflecting the pricing of high-end wines at that time, so now ten years later, 2,000 yuan should become the threshold for high-end wines.
Dongxing Securities: Optimistic about the steady growth trend of liquor companies under the consumption upgrade
Judging from the current terminal feedback, with the exception of some areas where the epidemic is more severely affected, most of thePartitionThe sales of both high-end and sub-high-end wines have entered a healthy growth. We judge that most of the wine companies will show rapid sales growth in January, laying a solid foundation for the wine companies to “get off to a good start” in 2021. Mainly because 1 is that the Spring Festival last year was earlier, the stocking of the Spring Festival was mostly concentrated in December of last year, and the Spring Festival this year was late, forming a wrong date. 2 After the Spring Festival last year, affected by the epidemic, the stagnant shipments of the wineries led to a decrease in sales in January last year, and the sales base in January was small. 3 This year, there has been a greater recovery in demand, especially in areas that are less affected by the epidemic. Demand has increased significantly this year. From a long-term perspective, we are optimistic about the steady growth of liquor companies under consumption upgrades, and we are also optimistic about the overall consumption recovery during the Spring Festival this year.
Everbright Securities: Looking forward to the high-end liquor prices after the Spring Festival peak season is expected to continue to rise
Looking forward to the peak season of the Spring Festival, high-end liquor prices are expected to continue to rise. 1) After the holiday, the price of high-end liquor is expected to continue the upward trend, Moutaibrand effectOutstanding, strong attributes such as gift giving, investment, and collection, the demand side continues to be strong, and prices will remain high. Wuliangye focuses on the development of group buying channels and classic Wuliangye products to achieve continuous price increases. At present, Wuliangye is still dominated by traditional distribution channels, and it is expected to continue to adjust its sales structure this year. Laojiao has taken measures to stop the goods and keep prices high, and will continue to increase investment in end consumers in 21 years; 2) Sub-high-end liquor will accelerate the national expansion, and there is a large room for increase in volume and price. Fenjiu expands the market outside the province and launches the blue and white revival version to hit the high-end price band. Yanghe focuses on the development of Dream 6+ and Dream 3 crystal version products, which will be rolled out nationwide in 21 years.This worldproduct structureContinue to upgrade. In 21 years, the company may adjust the approval price of the quartet series to contribute to the increase.
The marginal change in market liquidity will be the biggest aspect of fundamental and valuation faced by liquor companies in 2021.variable.According to the feedback from the Spring Festival dynamic sales season, the operation of high-end liquor is still the most deterministic, and Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended. For the sub-high-end, focus on wine companies with a national foundation in brand and channel operation. RecommendShanxi Fenjiu,attentionYanghe shares。
Fangda Securities:The market gradually digests the pessimistic expectations of the epidemic’s impact on liquor consumption in peak seasons
The market is gradually digesting the pessimistic expectations of the epidemic’s impact on liquor consumption during peak seasons. The short-term epidemic affects the fundamentals, but the long-term trend of liquor continues to rise. It is recommended to continue the layout of the callback. Next, it is recommended to focus on terminal sales.According to channel feedback, leading wine companiesPay backBasically unaffected, the task was completed smoothly before the Spring Festival. It is less than two weeks before New Year’s Eve. Based on the experience of previous years, it will enter the terminal next week.ShipmentIn the current period, due to the impact of the epidemic last year, some terminals are currently on the sidelines, and it is recommended to focus on tracking terminal sales.We believe that the current market pessimistic expectations are improving marginally. The market’s concerns about the loosening of baijiu’s “grouping” have been corrected in the early stage, and sentiment has basically been released. It is expected that wine companies this yearYoYIt will be significantly improved last year, and the long-term trend of the industry is improving. It is recommended to actively deploy.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
(Editor in charge: DF150)
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