原标题：贵州茅台再次“飞翔”！ 券商的目标价没有跟上，股价也达到了新的高位！ 终点在哪里？
概要
[KweichowMoutaiisflyingagain!Thetargetpriceofthebrokeragehasnotkeptupwiththestockpriceandhitanewhigh!Whereistheend?】OnFebruary4ththethreemajorA-sharestockindexescollectivelycloseddownledbyaquaculturerareearthpermanentmagnetsgeneticallymodifiedsolid-statebatteriesandothersectorswhilebankingautomotivechipsmedicalbeautyliquorandPinduoduoconceptsledtheriseIntermsofindividualstocksatotalof37stocksinthetwocitieshaveadailylimit128stocksrosebymorethan5%atotalof26stocksfellbyalimitand412stocksfellbymorethan5%
Introduction:Keep going up!Kweichow MoutaiIt’s a new high.
On February 4, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively closed down, led by sectors such as aquaculture, rare earth permanent magnets, genetic modification, and solid-state batteries.bank, Car chips, medical beauty, liquor,PinduoduoThe concept and other sectors led the gains.
As of the close,The Shanghai Composite IndexFell 0.44% to 3,501.86 points;Shenzhen Component IndexFell 0.84% to 15,105.94 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexFell 0.72% to 3,200.55 points.Northbound funds accumulationNet inflow9.571 billion yuan, of which,Shanghai Stock ConnectThe net inflow was 2.369 billion yuan,Shenzhen Stock ConnectThe net inflow was 7.202 billion yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, the two citiesShare37 stocks rose by the limit, 128 stocks rose by more than 5%, a total of 26 stocks fell by the limit, and 412 stocks fell by more than 5%.
Kweichow MoutaiToday’s stock price hit a new high again, once as high as 2,330 yuan in the intraday! As of the close,Kweichow MoutaiIt was reported at 2232.85 yuan, up 5.98%, and the total market value was 2.9 trillion yuan.
It’s worth mentioning that the rapid rise in Maotai’s share price also allowedBrokerageAnalystIt’s a bit “surprised”. According to the Tongshun-Different Eyes Query iFind, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price is almost the same as the target price given by the recent brokerage firm, and even exceeded the target price of some brokerage firms. For example, on December 29 last year,Haitong InternationalThe target price given is 2025 yuan, and Guizhou Moutai has exceeded the target price by more than 10%.
The strength of Kweichow Moutai’s share price has also rejuvenated the “little brother” of the adjusted baijiu. On the plate,Huangtai WinerySeal the daily limit,Old white dry wineRose more than 8%,Panjiang shares、WuliangyeAnd so on have also risen to varying degrees.
On the news, now that the Spring Festival is approaching, liquor will enterMovable pinImportant window period.According to the broker’s latest dealerResearchFrom a point of view, currently mostBrandShipPay backThe rhythm is normal, and the dealers and terminal inventory are benign.Mao Wulu pays back 35%-40%, Fenjiu, Yanghe pays 25%-30%, high-end liquorPerformanceThe most certainty.
priceIn China, high-end liquor still remained strong. Last week, the approved price of Feitian Moutai rose to about 3,150 yuan, and San Mao was 2,450 yuan per bottle.YatsushiroWuliangyeFell to around 980 yuan,Luzhou LaojiaoThe approval price fell to 885 yuan.
fundSuper-matched liquor hits a record high
As the liquor sector continues to reach new highs,PositionAlso reached the extreme.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of heavy warehouses in the liquor sector was 18.51%, a record high.YoY, The quarter-on-quarter increase was 5.43pct and 3.43pct respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of over-provisioning in the liquor sector was 10.59%, which increased by 2.89pct and 2.09pct year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively, and continued to increase since the second quarter of 2020.
Image Source:Industrial Securities
It is worth mentioning that in terms of shareholding concentration, the proportion of top liquor continues to increase. Specifically, in the fourth quarter of 2020, high-end liquor Kweichow Moutai,Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoThe market capitalization ratios of the fund’s investment stocks were 3.15%, 2.32%, and 1.07%, respectively, which increased by 0.45%, 0.34%, and 0.27% respectively;Shanxi FenjiuNewly entered Top20 heavy stocks, accounting for 0.69% of the market value of fund investment stocks.
Image Source:Industrial Securities
China Merchants FundEarlier, it was stated that the liquor sector has been adjusted in the near future, but its basic orientation is still good, and it still has long-term configuration value.Hou Hao said that under the repeated epidemic situation, the market is worried about the sales of liquor during the Spring Festival. Funds in the sector have been loosened. However, from the perspective of sector allocation, the liquor sector is basically facing a good trend. The short-term adjustment is a correction to the rapid rise in the previous period. The callback process will be Provide better configuration opportunities. It is recommended to be more patient in configuration and passFixed investmentThe method smooths short-term fluctuations and extends the holding time.
Where is the end of Kweichow Moutai, which is constantly rising?
Judging from the current fundamentals, the impact of the epidemic on the upcoming Spring Festival is not as great as last year. According to agency news, the sales of high-end liquor and sub-high-end liquor in non-epidemic areas are normal, and liquor manufacturers have been stocking from this week. At the beginning, terminal sales were relatively strong, and New Year gifts were basically unaffected.
In fact, the short-term changes in fundamentals will have relatively little impact on Moutai. As we all know, Moutai has been in short supply in the market for a long time and sold at a premium. Even if the short-term market demand shrinks slightly, it will not have an impact on Moutai.OneProductThe price of Moutai is determined by supply and demand. Moutai is a commodity that has been in short supply for a long time and has a large price increase. Ask when Moutai will reach the top, which is probably when Moutai can get it at the ex-factory price without rushing to buy it.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF358)
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